TLDR
- Dogecoin is currently trading at approximately $0.18, up 7.2% for the week
- Technical analyst Maelius sees DOGE forming a nested Elliott Wave pattern that could drive price to $1
- DOGE is holding above its 200-week EMA with a fresh bullish momentum cross on the WaveTrend Oscillator
- The recent US Federal Reserve decision to keep rates unchanged has contributed to DOGE’s price increase
Dogecoin has spent nearly three years consolidating after its 2021 price peak. Now, technical indicators suggest the popular meme coin may be poised for a major breakout. According to analyst Maelius, DOGE is showing promising signs on the weekly chart.
The DOGE/USDT pair on Binance is currently printing a weekly candle at $0.1828, representing a 7.2% increase for the week. Two key moving averages frame the current structure: the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA-50) at $0.203 and the rising 200-week EMA at $0.138.
Price briefly dipped below the EMA-50 earlier this year. However, it never lost the EMA-200, which now sits inside a broad demand zone ranging from approximately $0.11 to $0.20.
An ascending trend-line connecting the October 2023, August 2024, and April 2025 swing-lows provides additional support. The most recent pullback bounced almost precisely at the intersection of this diagonal with the EMA-200 and the lower edge of the demand zone.
This area of triple confluence is often viewed by technical analysts as an ideal launching point for the next advance.
DOGE Price
Elliott Wave Projection
Maelius bases his analysis on a nested Elliott Wave count. The pattern shows a “1-2, 1-2” sequence that began with a move to $0.2288 in March 2024, retraced to $0.0805 in August, then rallied to nearly $0.4843 in December before correcting to $0.1298 in April 2025.
In Elliott Wave theory, consecutive 1-2 structures often precede a powerful third wave. Maelius projects DOGE to reach approximately $1 during this third wave.
After this move, he forecasts a fourth-wave correction below $0.70, followed by a fifth wave potentially reaching between $1.30 and $1.70.
$DOGE looks incredible here, despite the fact it went lower as I initially expected (was expecting EMA50 to hold).
Respecting major demand area, EMA200 as well as diagonal support and it seems like 1,2,1,2 is completed and now we head for 3rd EW (within larger 3rd).
1W WTO… pic.twitter.com/b5s7qkJ3KJ
— Maelius (@MaeliusCrypto) May 8, 2025
The WaveTrend Oscillator (WTO) has just produced a bullish cross on the weekly timeframe, the first such signal since August 2024. The histogram has shifted from deep red to neutral gray, mirroring transitions that preceded previous strong advances in Dogecoin’s price.
Market observers note that DOGE is holding a multi-year demand block, trading above its 200-week EMA, and testing its 50-week EMA while showing fresh bullish momentum.
Macro Factors Driving Recent Gains
Dogecoin has surged over 4% in the past 24 hours following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain current interest rates. Though rate holds typically pressure crypto assets, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments provided market clarity.
Powell stated the US economy was in a good position with inflation decreasing. He mentioned that Trump’s tariffs remained the primary concern behind the decision to keep rates steady.
Interestingly, tariff uncertainties have become a bullish factor for crypto assets like Dogecoin. Last week, Bitcoin surged to nearly $97,000 amid these concerns, while DOGE held steady and appeared ready for its own increase.
The upcoming US-China trade talks, set to begin on May 10, are also influencing prices. The two economic powers have imposed substantial tariffs on each other, creating market tension. Hope for an agreement between the countries has contributed to the positive sentiment for meme coins and the broader crypto market.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement that the US could soon reach trade agreements with 17 key trading partners has further buoyed market outlook.
