TLDR
- Jefferies upgraded Dollar Tree (DLTR) from Underperform to Hold and raised its price target to $135.
- Customer traffic rose 1.4% in Q2 and jumped 4.5% in July, showing improving momentum.
- Jefferies lifted its Q2 EPS estimate to $1.15, above Wall Street’s $1.12 consensus.
- Wealthfront Advisers bought 69,904 DLTR shares worth roughly $8 million in Q2.
- Wall Street holds a Moderate Buy consensus on DLTR with an average price target of $129.22.
Dollar Tree (DLTR) stock was trading around $131.84 on Thursday, up roughly 1% on the day, after Jefferies upgraded the stock and raised its price target to $135.
The upgrade came from Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe, who moved DLTR from Underperform to Hold. He cited improving customer traffic and signs that the risk of further market-share losses has eased.
Dollar Tree’s Q2 fiscal 2026 rolling traffic rose 1.4%, reversing a 0.8% decline from Q1. July traffic then climbed 4.5%, suggesting that momentum has carried into the current quarter.
Tarlowe had previously flagged concerns around operational complexity and competition. He also worried that higher average ticket sizes could hurt traffic and margins. Those concerns have now eased as comparable sales and traffic trends have improved.
Jefferies Raises Q2 Estimates Ahead of Earnings
With earnings due on August 26, Jefferies raised its Q2 comparable-sales estimate to 3.4%. That breaks down to a 0.8% traffic comp and a 2.6% ticket comp.
The bank also lifted its Q2 EPS estimate to $1.15, up from a prior $1.00, putting it above the Wall Street consensus of $1.12.
Dollar Tree still has work to do. The company needs to bring all 9,000 stores up to its G.O.L.D. Standard, which aims to make store presentation more consistent and higher quality across the chain.
Jefferies also flagged a potential headwind to average ticket size in Q3, tied to Dollar Tree’s 40th-anniversary $1 product rollout. Cheaper items typically mean smaller baskets, though they could also bring more foot traffic.
Institutional Buying Picks Up
Wealthfront Advisers LLC took a new position in DLTR during Q2, buying 69,904 shares worth approximately $8.05 million. Several other institutions also added to their positions over recent quarters.
Institutional investors now own 97.4% of DLTR’s outstanding stock.
Dollar Tree’s last earnings report, released May 28, showed EPS of $1.74, beating the $1.53 consensus estimate by $0.21. Revenue came in at $4.98 billion, up 7.2% year over year.
The company also authorized a $2.5 billion share-repurchase program in July, covering up to 10.7% of outstanding stock.
Other analysts have also made moves on the stock recently. Raymond James upgraded DLTR to Outperform with a $140 target in July. Guggenheim raised its target to $135 with a Buy rating in May.
DLTR has a 52-week range of $84.71 to $142.40, a market cap of $25.34 billion, and a PE ratio of 20.60.
Wall Street’s consensus sits at a Moderate Buy with an average price target of $123.41, slightly below where the stock currently trades.
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