TLDR
- Dutch Bros stock has fallen nearly 25% in the first three months of 2026, driven by macro fears and cautious consumer sentiment.
- Q4 2025 revenue grew 29% year-over-year to $443.6 million — the fastest growth rate in nearly a year.
- EPS of $0.17 surged 143% year-over-year; the company beat consensus estimates by 70% last quarter.
- Dutch Bros’ average unit volume hit a record $2.1 million in 2025, outpacing Starbucks ($1.8M) and Dunkin’ ($1.4M).
- The company plans to open 181 new locations in 2026 and is guiding for $2 billion in revenue — 25% growth.
Dutch Bros (BROS) closed at around $28–$29 before this latest coverage, reflecting that near-25% pullback over the past three months.
Dutch Bros has been one of the more confusing stories in the restaurant space lately. The stock is down sharply, but the business is doing well. That gap is worth paying attention to.
For Q4 2025, the company posted revenue of $443.6 million, up 29% year-over-year. That’s not just good — it’s an acceleration from the 25% growth seen in Q3. EPS came in at $0.17, a 143% jump from the same period a year ago.
Systemwide same-store sales grew 7.7%, with transactions up 5.4%. Company-operated locations performed even better, with same-store sales up 9.7% and transactions climbing 7.6%. Dutch Bros has now posted 19 consecutive years of positive same-store sales growth.
The company’s average unit volume reached a record $2.1 million in 2025. That tops Starbucks at $1.8 million and Dunkin’ at $1.4 million.
Earnings Beat Streak Continues
Dutch Bros has beaten earnings estimates in each of the last two quarters. In Q4, it beat the Zacks consensus of $0.10 by 70%. The quarter before, it beat a $0.17 estimate by coming in at $0.19.
The average earnings surprise over those two quarters sits at 40.88%.
Looking ahead to the next report, the Zacks Earnings ESP stands at +2.20%, a positive signal. When combined with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), research shows this combination produces a positive earnings surprise roughly 70% of the time.
Analysts have been revising estimates upward, which typically reflects improved confidence in near-term results.
Expansion and New Formats
Dutch Bros currently operates 1,136 locations and plans to add 181 more in 2026. The long-term target is 2,029 locations by 2029.
Management is guiding for $2 billion in revenue this year, which would represent roughly 25% growth — in line with Wall Street expectations.
The company is also testing new formats. A walk-up location in downtown Los Angeles has performed well, with order-ahead transactions running at three times the systemwide average. A limited breakfast menu is also being piloted.
The stock trades at 74 times earnings, which sounds pricey. But the price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio comes in at 0.87. A PEG below 1 is generally seen as a sign that a stock may be undervalued relative to its growth rate.
Dutch Bros’ Earnings ESP of +2.20% and upward analyst revisions point to another potential beat when the company next reports.
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