TLDR
- Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading around $1,580-$1,600, down about 1% and nearly 50% over the past year
- ETH’s value accrual has been hampered by its data availability roadmap after the Dencun upgrade
- Ethereum is losing ground to Solana and BNB Chain in terms of fees captured
- Based rollups could improve ETH’s value accrual but are not a priority in upcoming upgrades
- Technical analysts are divided, with some expecting a breakout to $2,000 while others note increased exchange reserves (a bearish signal)
Ethereum (ETH) price has fallen to around $1,580, representing a 1% decline in recent trading. The second-largest cryptocurrency is feeling pressure as its data availability roadmap appears to be hampering value accrual according to recent reports.
The digital asset has declined nearly 50% over the past year, eroding investor confidence. While Bitcoin has benefited from bullish developments in 2024, Ethereum has struggled to keep pace.
Current price action shows ETH facing rejection at the $1,688 resistance level earlier this week. The cryptocurrency experienced $57.08 million in futures liquidations in the past 24 hours alone.
Data Availability Roadmap Challenges
Since Ethereum implemented its data availability roadmap after the Dencun upgrade in March 2024, the network has seen mixed results. While scalability surged by a factor of nearly 16x, this came at a cost to Layer 1 fee capture.
The upgrade allowed Layer 2 solutions to improve their throughput and reduce costs. These L2s now pay much lower fees for L1 settlement.
This shift has hurt ETH value accrual and weakened the “ultrasound money” narrative, which relies heavily on gas fees. As a result, Ethereum is falling behind competitors like Solana and BNB Chain in terms of fees captured.
Some community members have suggested repricing the blob fee market while continuing to increase blob count. However, this creates a delicate balance, as Layer 2 solutions might move to cheaper alternatives if minimum blob fees become too high.
Alternative data availability layers like Celestia, EigenLayer and NearDA already provide higher throughput at very low fees. Despite these challenges, Ethereum maintains its lead in network security with over 1 million nodes compared to Celestia’s 100 and EigenDA’s 170.
The Case for Based Rollups
Many experts point to based rollups as a potential solution to Ethereum’s scalability and value accrual challenges. These rollups rely on Layer 1 sequencing and have shown promising results.
For example, Taiko, a based rollup, contributed more fees to Ethereum than the top three Layer 2 solutions combined while posting the least amount of data to the Layer 1 over the past year.
Despite their potential, based rollups are not a top priority in upcoming Ethereum upgrades. The Pectra and Fusaka upgrades, scheduled for May 7 and Q4 2025 respectively, have other focus areas.
This lack of prioritization could extend the timeline for addressing Ethereum’s value accrual issues, putting further pressure on ETH price in the near term.
Technical Analysis and Price Outlook
Technical indicators for Ethereum show mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below its neutral level and testing its moving average line. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows receding green histogram bars.
On the downside, the $1,450 to $1,550 support range could prove crucial for ETH. Bulls have previously outweighed bears when prices reached this zone, with investors purchasing over 1.2 million ETH within this range.
Some analysts remain optimistic about Ethereum’s prospects. Crypto analyst Ted noted that ETH may be breaking out of a downward-sloping trendline on the short-term chart, suggesting a potential rally towards $2,000 if it closes above $1,670.
$ETH – A good example why taking profits is important and why buying every dip doesn't always work. Minus one entry all of these buys offered great chances to take profits (I didn't). I thought conditions would push us back to utility (It didn't). Never marry your bags. pic.twitter.com/xN5TmxWZBs
— IncomeSharks (@IncomeSharks) April 16, 2025
Another analyst, Titan of Crypto, highlighted that ETH appears poised to break out from an ascending triangle pattern on the weekly time frame. This pattern often signals building buying pressure and could lead to a strong upward move.
However, not all indicators are positive. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that over 368,000 ETH has been sent to exchanges since the beginning of April. Rising exchange reserves typically signal potential selling pressure.
The 50-day Simple Moving Average and a descending trendline extending from March 23 stand as key resistance levels that could limit upward movement.
For now, ETH traders should watch the key support zone between $1,450 and $1,550, as well as resistance around $1,670. A decisive move above or below these levels could determine Ethereum’s price direction in the coming weeks.
