TLDR
- Ethereum recently dipped below its Realized Price, signaling a potential capitulation phase
- ETH price has rebounded to around $1,570 after falling to $1,471
- Historical patterns suggest the $990-$1,240 range could be the final bottom
- Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has entered the “capitulation” zone, often preceding market bottoms
- Previous cycles show significant recoveries after similar conditions
Ethereum has started showing signs of recovery following a sharp decline that brought its price down to $1,471 earlier this week. The second-largest cryptocurrency is now trading at approximately $1,570, representing a 4.8% increase over the past 24 hours.
Despite this rebound, Ethereum remains under broader market pressure as analysts evaluate both its short-term position and long-term potential. One key metric currently drawing attention is Ethereum’s Realized Price.
This on-chain indicator recalculates the network’s market value based on the last price each ETH coin moved. It provides insight into the average acquisition cost across the blockchain.
When ETH trades below its Realized Price, it often reflects a bearish sentiment and increased selling pressure. This occurs because many holders find themselves underwater on their investments.
According to on-chain analyst and CryptoQuant contributor theKriptolik, Ethereum’s recent dip has taken it below this Realized Price level. This development has important market implications.
Ethereum Price Has Dropped Below Its Realized Price
“Past data shows that whenever ETH dips below its realized price, it often coincides with long-term bottom zones.” – By @theKriptolik pic.twitter.com/cVRgufkqlc
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 8, 2025
The Realized Price typically functions as a psychological support or resistance level. Trading above it generally indicates investor confidence, while trading below suggests mounting resistance.
Historical Patterns Point to Potential Bottom
A drop below the Realized Price tends to coincide with an increase in loss-driven selling as investors react to being in the red. Such events are often associated with the capitulation phase, where confidence erodes and widespread selling occurs.
Interestingly, historical data shows that ETH falling below this metric has frequently aligned with market bottoms and preceded subsequent long-term recoveries.
As theKriptolik noted, “Past data shows that whenever ETH dips below its realized price, it’s often coincided with long-term bottom zones. These periods have consistently been followed by strong recoveries.”
Current price action mirrors familiar fractal patterns seen in 2018 and 2022. In both instances, ETH experienced euphoric rallies that ended with sharp breakdowns and prolonged bear markets.
Each of these cycles shared key traits, including higher price highs accompanied by lower highs in the relative strength index (RSI). This is a classic sign of bearish divergence and weakening momentum.
Technical Indicators Signal Further Potential Decline
Ethereum has closed below the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level at around $1,550. Meanwhile, its weekly RSI remains above the oversold threshold of 30, suggesting room for further declines until this reading drops below that level.
The current fractal pattern suggests Ethereum could be in the final leg of its decline. The next potential price targets fall within the $990-$1,240 range, aligning with the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement area.
Another important indicator, Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), has entered the “capitulation” zone. This is an on-chain phase where most investors are holding ETH at a loss.
In previous market cycles, similar moves into this zone occurred close to major market bottoms. In March 2020, the NUPL turned negative just before ETH rebounded sharply following the COVID-19 market crash.
A similar pattern emerged in June 2022, when the metric fell into capitulation territory shortly before Ethereum established a bear market low of around $880.
Now that ETH is once again entering this zone, the current setup loosely echoes those prior bottoming phases. This coincides with key Fibonacci support levels near $1,000.
While the Realized Price breach signals short-term volatility, it may also represent a potential accumulation zone for long-term investors. Past cycles have seen Ethereum rebound significantly after such movements.
