TLDR
- February CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% monthly and 2.4% year over year, in line with January
- The report covers the period before the Iran War broke out, so oil price spikes won’t show up yet
- Used car and grocery prices are expected to fall, helping offset other price pressures
- The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% next week
- A longer Iran conflict could push oil higher and force the Fed to rethink its rate path
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its February Consumer Price Index report on Wednesday, March 11, at 8:30 a.m. EST. Economists expect it to show consumer prices rising 0.3% from January and 2.4% from a year ago.
Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is forecast to rise 0.3% month over month and 2.5% year over year. Those numbers would look nearly identical to January’s print.
Big day tomorrow. Inflation data
Problem is, we won't see the sudden spike in oil translate into inflation until April's data. pic.twitter.com/w50uOqVvca
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) March 11, 2026
January’s inflation data came in cooler than expected, driven by falling used vehicle prices and softer energy costs. Economists expect some of those trends to carry over into February.
Josh Jamner, senior investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge, says price growth in used cars and groceries is likely to slow again. “Food has been a source of upside price pressure over the last couple of months,” he said, “but we expect food and home prices to be cooler this month.”
Housing inflation is also expected to ease. Jamner said there is a chance of “outright deflation” in food prices, though that remains an upside scenario rather than a baseline forecast.
Not all prices are heading lower. Goods exposed to tariffs — including recreation products — are expected to keep rising, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. Wells Fargo analysts wrote that “progress on lowering inflation is stalling out again.”
What the Iran War Means for Prices
The Iran War, which broke out after the February data was collected, is already pushing oil prices higher. Bank of America’s Stephen Juneau noted that the US-Israel military operation in Iran has driven oil prices up by nearly 18% from end-February levels.
Because the CPI report only covers February, that surge won’t appear in Wednesday’s numbers. Analysts say the energy impact will likely show up in March and April data instead.
“This data is from before the recent conflict in the Middle East broke out,” Jamner said. “That’s going to be a March and April dynamic.”
A longer conflict could put upward pressure on both headline and core inflation in the months ahead, according to Bank of America.
What the Fed Is Likely to Do
About 97% of market participants expect the Fed to hold interest rates in the 3.50%–3.75% range at its meeting next week. The remaining 3% are pricing in a quarter-point cut.
The Fed is not expected to act on Wednesday’s data alone. Policymakers are watching the evolving situation in the Middle East and the weakening labor market before making any moves.
The US economy lost 92,000 jobs last month, pushing unemployment to 4.4%. That was worse than expected and adds another layer of complexity to the Fed’s rate decision.
Bank of America analysts wrote that high oil prices should keep the Fed on hold in the near term. But if energy prices start dragging on consumer demand, they said the Fed “would likely turn more dovish in the medium term.”
The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, rose 2.9% year over year in December — well above the 2% target. January PCE data is due Friday.
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