TLDR
- The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting
- Market focus will shift to the “dot plot” and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference
- Inflation rose to 3.1% in February, well above the Fed’s 2% target
- Crypto traders now price in only one rate cut this year; odds of zero cuts have climbed to 23%
- Trump is pressuring Powell to cut rates, while the Warsh nomination faces a Senate hold
The Federal Reserve is set to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, keeping its target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. This is the second consecutive meeting where no change is expected.
According to last 6 #FOMC data say 5-7% dump last Jan FOMC dumped 30%. what we will get tomorrow rate cut
Imo we see pullback across the market. already priced in this weekend pump
whats your thoughts data will never lie or new move tomorrom
Don't fall in moon boys words… https://t.co/Hpd4npT9tH pic.twitter.com/eKjWx6fLNX
— Junar (@JunarXBT) March 17, 2026
The decision itself is widely considered a done deal. What markets are watching closely is what comes after — the updated dot plot and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.
The dot plot is a chart showing where individual Fed officials expect interest rates to go. In December, the median forecast showed just one rate cut for 2025. Most analysts expect that outlook to hold.
$BTC has moved lower after 6 out of 6 recent FOMC meetings pic.twitter.com/24i6xlsaeb
— BitcoinHyper (@BitcoinHypers) March 17, 2026
The Fed will also release an updated Summary of Economic Projections. This could show small changes to growth and inflation forecasts, but no major shifts are anticipated.
Inflation remains a key concern. Core PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — rose to 3.1% in February. That is well above the Fed’s 2% target and gives policymakers little reason to cut rates.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is adding pressure. The U.S.-Iran war has raised fears of an oil price spike, which could push inflation even higher.
How the Iran War Is Affecting Rate Cut Expectations
Before the Iran conflict, traders had expected as many as three rate cuts this year. Those odds have dropped sharply. Data from Polymarket now shows a 30% chance of just one cut and a 23% chance of zero cuts this year.
Futures markets suggest the Fed will not consider easing until at least September, and possibly October.
Crypto markets have tracked this shift. Bitcoin rallied to $75,000 ahead of the meeting, but traders have pulled back on bets for multiple cuts. Prior to the Iran conflict, three cuts this year were widely priced in.
Market strategist Kathy Lien said Powell is likely to strike a cautious tone at the press conference. She noted that both inflation and the job market are facing pressure, leaving the Fed in a difficult position.
Former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson told CNBC he expects the committee to be careful in how it describes the economic outlook. He said he is more worried about inflation than jobs at this point.
Political Pressure Builds Around the Fed
President Trump publicly called on Powell to cut rates on Monday, saying a “third-grade student” would know to cut now. Trump has been pushing for lower rates for years.
However, Trump’s own Justice Department is holding up his plan to replace Powell. His nominee, Kevin Warsh, is stuck in a Senate confirmation process.
Senator Thom Tillis has said he will block the Warsh nomination until a Department of Justice case involving Powell over a Fed building renovation is resolved.
Powell’s term runs through May. Wednesday’s meeting is expected to be his second-to-last as Fed Chair.
The Fed will release its rate decision on Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Powell’s press conference.
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