TLDR
- Gemini filed with the CFTC to operate a derivatives exchange that could be used for prediction market contracts allowing bets on real-world events
- The crypto exchange went public in September 2025 with a $4.4 billion valuation and raised $433 million in its IPO
- Kalshi reached $4.4 billion in monthly volume in October while Polymarket hit $3 billion, both all-time highs
- Other platforms like Robinhood, MetaMask, and Coinbase have recently integrated or announced prediction market features
- Gemini’s stock has dropped 56% from its IPO price of $37 to $16.29 as of November 4, 2025
Gemini is preparing to launch prediction market contracts according to a Bloomberg report published November 4. The crypto exchange filed an application with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in May to operate a designated contract market.
Gemini, the crypto exchange founded by billionaires Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, is preparing to offer prediction market contracts, according to sources https://t.co/xMZhziKaDK
— Bloomberg (@business) November 4, 2025
This regulatory status is required for running a derivatives exchange. Sources familiar with the plans told Bloomberg that Gemini aims to launch these products as soon as possible.
The Winklevoss twins founded the exchange and took it public in September 2025. The company raised $433 million in an upsized initial public offering and received a $4.4 billion valuation.
Gemini executives discussed using the derivatives exchange license to allow trading of event contracts. These contracts let traders bet on outcomes of real-world events.
The exchange mentioned this plan in a filing before its September IPO. The company stated it wants to launch event contracts for economic, financial, political and sports forecasts.
Prediction Market Growth
The prediction markets sector has seen rapid expansion in recent months. Kalshi and Polymarket both reached all-time high monthly volumes in October 2025.
Kalshi led with $4.4 billion in monthly volume. Polymarket recorded $3 billion during the same period.
Weekly trading volume on Kalshi has hit new records almost every week since mid-October. The platform recorded $1.2 billion in volume between October 27 and November 2.
This topped the previous week’s record of $1.01 billion. Polymarket has also crossed the $1 billion mark in weekly trading volume.
The CFTC has changed its approach to prediction markets. The regulator previously took a restrictive stance but now shows openness to these platforms.
Industry Expansion
Multiple major platforms have entered the prediction markets space. Robinhood partnered with Kalshi in August to offer event contracts for NFL and NCAA College Football.
MetaMask, Coinbase, DraftKings and World have integrated prediction markets or announced plans to do so. Intercontinental Exchange made a $2 billion investment in Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation.
The National Hockey League signed multi-year licensing agreements with both Kalshi and Polymarket. This marked the first time a major U.S. sports league partnered with prediction markets.
Gemini Space Station, Inc. Class A Common Stock, GEMI
Gemini’s stock price has declined since its public debut. The company’s shares traded down 8.43% to close at $16.29 on November 4.
This represents a 56% drop from the opening price of $37 on the Nasdaq after its IPO. Gemini is scheduled to release its first earnings report as a public company on November 10.
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