TLDR
- Wolfe Research upgraded GM to Outperform from Peer Perform with a $96 price target
- The average auto stock has fallen about 8% over the past three weeks due to macro concerns
- Wolfe sees potential 2027 tailwinds for GM including a full-size pickup refresh worth ~$1.7B, lower warranty costs, and reduced tariffs
- Wolfe models GM EPS of $12.37 in 2026 and $16.03 in 2027
- Ford was flagged as a risk, with a possible $1.5B EBIT headwind into 2027 from potential inventory overhang
Wolfe Research upgraded General Motors to Outperform on Wednesday, setting a price target of $96. The firm moved GM up from a Peer Perform rating.
The call came as auto stocks broadly sold off over the past three weeks. The average name in the sector dropped about 8% as macro concerns rattled investors.
Analyst Emmanuel Rosner wrote that auto stocks are “often among the main targets when macro concerns escalate.” But he added that history shows these periods “can also present interesting buying opportunities.”
After updating estimates for production and commodity trends, Wolfe said the “risk/reward profile now appears more attractive for select names.” GM was at the top of that list.
The firm argued that investors may be underappreciating the scale of GM’s potential upside heading into 2027. That includes the upcoming full-size pickup refresh, which Wolfe estimates could generate roughly $1.7 billion.
Warranty costs are also expected to fall. On top of that, Wolfe sees a reduced net tariff burden and continued improvement in EV losses as further tailwinds.
Wolfe now models GM earning $12.37 per share in 2026, rising to $16.03 in 2027. That 2027 figure in particular appears to be where the firm sees the market mispricing the stock.
BorgWarner and Aptiv Also Get Attention
Wolfe also upgraded BorgWarner to Outperform in the same note. The firm cited the company’s “Power Gen opportunity,” which it said could add around $2 billion in revenue at scale.
Rosner said the stock’s recent pullback means that upside is not yet priced in. The setup, in Wolfe’s view, looks attractive.
On Aptiv, Rosner kept his positive stance ahead of the company’s planned separation. He called it “a compelling entry point,” pointing to strong fundamentals across both businesses that will result from the split.
Ford Gets a Cautious Flag
Not every name in the sector got a lift. Wolfe flagged execution risk at Ford, pointing to an unclear 2026 production trajectory.
The firm warned that an overstocked year-end inventory could create a $1.5 billion EBIT headwind going into 2027. Rosner did not upgrade Ford.
The Wolfe note reflects a selective approach to the sector rather than a broad bullish call. GM’s refreshed truck lineup and cost improvements were the core of the upgrade case.
Wolfe’s 2027 EPS estimate of $16.03 for GM sits well above current consensus, suggesting the firm sees meaningful upside if those tailwinds materialize as expected.
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