TLDR
- Arthur Hayes of Maelstrom named HYPE his firm’s largest altcoin position and set a $150 price target
- HYPE rose 11.3% in 24 hours to around $35, outperforming Bitcoin’s 3.1% gain
- Hayes says 97% of Hyperliquid’s revenue is used to buy back HYPE tokens from the market
- To hit $150, Hyperliquid needs to reach $1.4 billion in annualized revenue — a level it hit in August 2025
- Even in a stress case, Hayes values HYPE at around $58, roughly 75% above current levels
Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE surged more than 11% on Monday after Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at Maelstrom, disclosed it is now his firm’s largest altcoin position.
Hayes published a detailed essay setting a $150 price target on HYPE, calling Hyperliquid the dominant decentralized exchange (DEX) for perpetuals trading.
HYPE climbed to around $35 in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin rose around 3.1% in the same period, briefly attempting a breakout above $70,000 before pulling back.
My essay on why $HYPE is going to $150 by August 2026.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 9, 2026
HYPE has more than doubled over the past year. Bitcoin, by contrast, has fallen nearly 15% in that time. HYPE remains more than 40% below its all-time high of $59, reached in September 2025.
Why Hayes Is Bullish On HYPE
Hayes says Hyperliquid is the largest revenue-generating crypto project that is not a stablecoin. He says 97% of protocol revenue goes toward buying back HYPE tokens from the open market.
“No other project in all of crypto hands as much money back to token holders as Hyperliquid,” Hayes wrote in his Substack newsletter.
His $150 target requires Hyperliquid to grow 30-day annualized revenue to $1.4 billion — a level the platform previously reached in August 2025. It also assumes the market re-rates the token from around 12x earnings to roughly 25x.
TVL without Revenue is NOTHING 🟥
30 day Revenue to TVL Ratio for Chains :$HYPE : 4.71%$INJ : 2.46%$SOL : 1.7%
BASE : 0.88%$NEAR : 0.70%$SUI : 0.67%$SEI : 0.36%$ETH : 0.14%$APT : 0.13%
> TVL tells you how much capital is parked.
> Revenue tells you if anyone is… https://t.co/gVwkJp7h3d pic.twitter.com/DcVKdrC92R— Our Crypto Talk (@ourcryptotalk) March 4, 2026
Hayes argues Hyperliquid does not need overall crypto derivatives growth to get there. A 3.97 percentage-point increase in market share from centralized exchanges would be enough.
HIP-3 and New Revenue Drivers
Hayes points to HIP-3, Hyperliquid’s permissionless perpetuals listing framework, as a key growth driver. Users who stake 500,000 HYPE can launch new markets using the platform’s engine.
Early markets include silver, gold, the Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500. Hayes says HIP-3 volumes already account for close to 10% of total Hyperliquid revenues within four months of launch.
His model assumes HIP-3 revenue grows 160% over six months. He also flags HIP-4, a permissionless prediction market feature, as a potential upside catalyst not included in his base case.
On token supply concerns, Hayes notes the team distributed roughly 20% of awarded tokens in November and December 2025, but cut that to about 1% in January and February 2026.
In a stress scenario — where the market applies only a 12x earnings multiple — Hayes still values HYPE at around $58. At press time, HYPE traded at $33.24.
