TLDR
- Intel (INTC) stock has rallied ~90% over the past year and is now trading around $46, up 5.7% on the day.
- The stock trades at 112x earnings, with analysts expecting EPS to nearly double by 2027.
- EBITDA is projected to grow from $1.2B in 2024 to $25.1B in 2028.
- Intel joined a $350M funding round for AI-chip startup SambaNova and formed a multiyear technical partnership.
- Analyst consensus remains “Reduce” with a $45.74 price target, though several firms have recently upgraded their ratings.
Intel’s (INTC) stock has had a remarkable run. After bottoming out near $17.67 over the past year, INTC is now trading around $46 — a roughly 90% rebound that has Wall Street asking whether the gains are justified.
The stock jumped another 5.7% on Wednesday alone, opening at $46.12.
For a company that spent years losing ground to rivals, the turnaround has caught investors’ attention. But the numbers behind the rally are worth looking at closely.
INTC now trades at 112 times earnings, even after adjusting for non-recurring items. That’s a steep price to pay for a chip maker still posting negative net margins.
So why are investors willing to pay up? The short answer: future earnings expectations.
Analysts project full-year 2026 EPS at $0.48, up 15% year over year. By 2027, that figure is expected to nearly double to around $1. Some estimates go as high as $1.80.
If those numbers come through, investors buying at today’s price could end up paying less than 20 times 2028 earnings.
Intel beat Q4 expectations, reporting EPS of $0.15 against a consensus estimate of $0.08. Revenue came in at $13.67 billion, above the $13.37 billion estimate. The catch: revenue was still down 4.2% year over year.
Q1 2026 guidance was soft, with EPS guided flat and revenue expected between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion. Intel said supply is at its lowest point in Q1 before improving through the year.
SambaNova Deal Adds AI Angle
One fresh catalyst: Intel joined a $350 million funding round for AI-chip startup SambaNova and announced a multiyear technical partnership focused on AI inference solutions. CEO Lip-Bu Tan holds an investor and chair role at SambaNova — a detail that has drawn both attention and some scrutiny.
The deal follows reported acquisition talks that fell apart. For now, Intel holds a financial stake and a technical agreement rather than full ownership.
Sector tailwinds also helped. A blockbuster deal between AMD and Meta lifted semiconductor stocks broadly, pulling Intel higher alongside its peers.
Institutional Money Is Moving In
EverSource Wealth Advisors increased its Intel position by 45.1% in Q3, picking up 13,700 additional units to bring its total to 44,090, valued at roughly $1.48 million.
Norges Bank initiated a new position worth approximately $1.58 billion. Vanguard grew its stake by 2.3%, now holding over 385 million units worth $8.64 billion. Institutional investors collectively own 64.53% of the stock.
On the insider side, EVP David Zinsner bought $249,985 worth of INTC at $42.50 per share in late January. EVP April Miller sold $981,000 worth at $49.05 in early February.
EBITDA is projected to climb from $1.2 billion in 2024 to $25.1 billion by 2028 — a jump that underpins much of the bullish case.
The 50-day moving average sits at $44.04, and the 200-day moving average is at $37.00. The consensus analyst rating remains “Reduce” with a price target of $45.74. Five analysts rate it a Buy, 26 a Hold, and six a Sell.
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