TLDR
- IBKR reports Q1 earnings after market close on Tuesday, April 21
- Analysts forecast EPS of $0.60 and revenue of $1.68 billion, up 17.5% year-over-year
- Stock trades at 36.8x trailing earnings, above the analyst mean price target of $78.30
- Jefferies and BMO Capital both recently cut price targets, to $81 and $80 respectively
- Insiders net sold $30.7 million worth of stock over the past three months
Interactive Brokers heads into Tuesday’s earnings report with its stock near record highs — and a valuation that’s making some analysts uncomfortable.
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc., IBKR
The electronic broker is expected to post EPS of $0.60 and revenue of $1.68 billion when it reports after the bell. That would represent year-over-year revenue growth of 17.5%, though EPS would dip slightly from $0.65 in Q4.
IBKR has beaten both EPS and revenue estimates in 75% of its last eight quarters. Last quarter, EPS came in at $0.65 versus a $0.59 forecast — a 10.2% beat — while revenue of $1.64 billion topped the $1.61 billion estimate.
The stock has climbed more than 110% over the past year, and currently trades at $81.25 — above where most analysts think it should be.
The mean analyst price target sits at $78.30, implying negative upside from current levels. Jefferies recently cut its target from $91 to $81. BMO Capital trimmed its target from $90 to $80. Both still carry Buy ratings, but the direction of revisions tells a story.
Valuation in Focus
At 36.8 times trailing earnings, IBKR is priced for perfection. The GF Score of 84/100 reflects strong fundamentals, with a perfect 10/10 profitability rating. But the valuation component is a concern — analysts at GuruFocus flag the stock as overvalued at current prices.
EPS estimates have been flat over the past week and barely moved over 60 days, up just 0.76%. Revenue estimates actually ticked down 0.67% over two months. That kind of stability suggests the market sees this as a steady business, not a high-growth surprise waiting to happen.
One number investors will zero in on: the pretax profit margin. IBKR posted 79% in Q4. Sustaining that level of efficiency is a tall order, and any slippage could unsettle a market that’s already pricing in near-flawless execution.
What Else Is on the Table
Key watch items include account growth, client equity levels, trading volume, and management’s commentary on how much of recent earnings strength is structural versus a product of the current rate environment.
In late March, IBKR announced it would allow clients to transfer existing crypto holdings into Interactive Brokers-linked crypto accounts. It’s a product expansion worth watching, though the near-term earnings impact is expected to be minimal.
Insider activity is another flag. Over the past three months, insiders net sold $30.7 million in stock, with only two small buy transactions totaling 100 shares. That imbalance doesn’t necessarily signal trouble, but it’s not a ringing endorsement heading into a high-stakes print.
The company’s current market cap sits at approximately $36.2 billion, and the broader analyst consensus remains Buy.
IBKR last reported Q1 2025 EPS of $1.88 — the anticipated $0.60 reflects a change in how EPS is calculated at the entity level, not a collapse in business performance.
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