TLDR
- LUNR surged ~16% on March 25 after winning a new NASA CLPS contract, then added ~17% on April 2 around the Artemis II launch.
- The stock is up over 90% year-to-date and roughly 270% from its 52-week low of $6.14.
- The $800 million Lanteris acquisition boosted the company’s backlog to $943 million and is expected to help deliver positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026.
- A pending NASA Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) contract, worth $600Mâ$800M, could push total backlog above $1.5 billion.
- Short interest sits at ~30% of float, making LUNR vulnerable to sharp swings in both directions.
Intuitive Machines has had a remarkable few weeks. The Houston-based space company saw its stock jump around 16% on March 25 after announcing a new contract win under NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services program. Then, on April 2, LUNR added another roughly 17% as investors reacted to the Artemis II launch â the first crewed Moon mission in over 50 years. The company played a tracking role during the mission.
Intuitive Machines, Inc., LUNR
By April 7, the stock was trading around $22.56, close to its 52-week high of $24.30. That’s a long way from the $6.14 low it touched a year ago â a gain of over 270% from the bottom, and more than 90% year-to-date.
The company has just 525 employees and was founded in 2013. It is still unprofitable, carrying a price-to-earnings ratio of -31.59. But the market has been repricing what kind of company Intuitive Machines actually is.
The Lanteris Deal Changes the Picture
A big part of that repricing traces back to January, when Intuitive Machines closed an $800 million acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems. The deal was a meaningful shift for a company that had previously depended almost entirely on periodic NASA lunar mission awards.
The acquisition pushed total backlog to $943 million. Lanteris is already generating positive adjusted EBITDA, which helped the company guide to positive adjusted EBITDA for full-year 2026 â an improvement from a $13 million EBITDA loss in 2025.
The deal also broadened the company’s scope. In early March, L3Harris Technologies selected Intuitive Machines to develop spacecraft platforms â a sign that the company is being treated as a full-scale space contractor, not just a lunar delivery service.
Intuitive Machines is also expanding its recurring revenue base through the Near Space Network Services (NSNS) contract, which is being executed toward an Infrastructure-as-a-Service billing model. That kind of predictable revenue stream is what investors typically reward with higher multiples.
A Key NASA Contract Is Still Pending
One near-term catalyst that hasn’t materialized yet is the NASA Lunar Terrain Vehicle award. The contract is valued at between $600 million and $800 million. A decision was originally expected before the end of 2025, but federal government disruptions pushed the timeline into 2026.
If Intuitive Machines wins the LTV contract, total backlog would cross $1.5 billion. The deal also includes a commercial leasing provision â NASA wouldn’t use the rover full-time, and Intuitive could rent it to private clients in the interim.
Nine Wall Street analysts covering the stock have set an average price target of $24.38, implying about 7% upside from current levels.
Short interest remains elevated at around 30% of the float. That’s a meaningful overhang â nearly a third of outstanding shares are held by investors betting against the stock. It cuts both ways: positive news can trigger sharp short-covering rallies, but any execution stumble tends to get punished quickly.
LUNR’s typical daily volume runs above 19 million shares. On April 7, volume was just 98,000 â an unusually quiet session for a stock known for volatility.
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