TLDR
- IonQ stock surged 21.7% on Thursday after Q4 earnings and 2026 revenue guidance beat forecasts
- Full-year 2025 revenue came in at $130 million; 2026 guidance set at $225–$245 million
- CEO compared IonQ’s growth potential to Nvidia’s early trajectory
- The company plans a 256-qubit system launch in Q4 2026 and acquired SkyWater Technology
- Analyst targets are split: Rosenblatt holds a $100 buy, DA Davidson cut to $35 neutral
IonQ posted $61.9 million in Q4 revenue, pushing full-year 2025 revenue to $130 million. Both figures topped Wall Street’s expectations, and the stock closed at $40.88 on Thursday — up 21.7% on the day.
Trading volume hit 66.4 million, well above the stock’s three-month average. That kind of volume signals genuine institutional interest, not just noise.
For 2026, IonQ guided revenue of $225 million to $245 million. CEO Niccolo de Masi called 2025 “a strategic and financial inflection point.”
CFO Inder Singh added that commercial customers made up over 60% of 2025 revenue, with international sales accounting for more than 30%. The company ended the year with $3.3 billion in cash and investments.
De Masi leaned into the Nvidia comparison again during post-earnings interviews. He pointed out that Nvidia once logged $60 million in quarterly revenue — the same ballpark IonQ is in now. “There’s room for us to go a long way,” he said.
He also acknowledged that IBM remains the competitor to watch. “There’s two ecosystems — there’s IBM and there’s the rest of us,” he said. Gartner last year named IBM “the quantum computing company to beat.”
256-Qubit System and SkyWater Deal
IonQ is targeting the launch of a 256-qubit operational system in Q4 2026. The company also announced it has deployed quantum-secured links across Romania’s National Quantum Communication Infrastructure — 36 links running over 1,500 kilometers.
The company has been on an acquisition run, picking up firms in atomic clocks, quantum sensors, and semiconductors. Its intended deal to acquire SkyWater Technology would bring chip production in-house — a move some analysts flagged as strategically sound.
Not everyone is convinced the pace is healthy. Critics on the Street have questioned whether expanding too fast, too early creates execution risk. IonQ has yet to turn an annual profit.
Wall Street Reactions
Analyst reactions were mixed after the print. Rosenblatt’s John McPeake kept his buy rating and $100 price target. DA Davidson’s Alexander Platt stayed neutral and cut his target to $35. Needham’s Quinn Bolton trimmed his target to $65.
The split reflects the broader debate: investors are willing to pay for growth, but cash burn and execution risks around deals like SkyWater keep some on the sidelines.
IonQ has gained 66% over the past 12 months, outpacing the Nasdaq Composite’s 23% rise. Rival D-Wave is up nearly 270% in that period, and Rigetti has climbed around 120%.
D-Wave CEO Alan Baratz cautioned after his own earnings that investors should expect “unpredictable revenue patterns” for the foreseeable future. His company’s latest quarter was described as “uneventful” by Rosenblatt, though bookings were strong despite a 27% year-over-year drop.
IonQ is scheduled to present at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 4, followed by the Cantor Global Technology & Industrial Growth Conference on March 11.
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