TLDR
- The Trump Administration plans to award $2 billion in quantum computing grants to nine companies, taking equity stakes in each.
- IonQ is not among the grant recipients, despite being the largest pure-play quantum computing stock on the market.
- Rivals D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), and Infleqtion (INFQ) are each receiving $100 million, while IBM gets $1 billion.
- IonQ stock still rose ~9.5% on Thursday morning, though analysts still expect the company to post losses for years.
- Wall Street’s consensus on IonQ is “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $68.63, per MarketBeat data.
IonQ’s latest quarter showed revenue of $64.67 million — a 754.7% jump year-over-year — but the company still missed earnings estimates, posting a loss of $0.34 per share against expectations of a $0.26 loss.
Trading around $52.53 at the open Thursday, IONQ moved up roughly 9.5% despite being left out of a major federal grant program. That’s the kind of head-scratching move that makes quantum computing stocks fun to watch — and frustrating to model.
The Trump Administration’s plan, reported exclusively by The Wall Street Journal, will hand $2 billion to nine quantum computing companies. The government will also take equity stakes in each recipient, aligning its financial interests with those firms going forward.
IBM leads the pack with $1 billion of the total. Globalfoundries will receive $375 million. D-Wave, Rigetti, and Infleqtion will each get $100 million. The remaining funds go to a handful of private companies, including one partly owned by Donald Trump Jr.’s 1789 Capital.
IonQ gets none of it.
What the Grants Mean for IonQ’s Rivals
The government taking equity stakes isn’t just a financial boost for the recipients — it gives the U.S. a direct interest in seeing those companies succeed. That’s a structural advantage that IonQ’s competitors now carry into the market.
D-Wave (QBTS) surged over 24%, Rigetti (RGTI) jumped nearly 25%, and Infleqtion (INFQ) climbed over 30% on the news. IBM rose close to 8%.
For investors, the question is why IonQ went up at all. One theory: the government’s massive investment validates the entire quantum sector, lifting all boats — even the ones that didn’t get the money.
Where IonQ Stands with Analysts
Ten analysts currently have a Buy rating on IONQ. Six have it at Hold and one at Sell. The consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with a price target of $68.63.
That said, Morgan Stanley has a $48.50 target and DA Davidson cut its price objective from $55 to $35 with a neutral rating back in February. Not everyone is convinced.
The company carries a market cap of around $19.6 billion, a beta of 3.05, and a 52-week range of $25.89 to $84.64. Its 50-day moving average sits at $39.31.
Institutional interest has been growing. DNB Asset Management raised its IonQ stake by over 1,099% in Q4, bringing its holdings to 55,230 units worth roughly $2.48 million. Several other funds have also added positions.
On the insider side, Director William Teuber bought 3,000 units at $38.38 in late February. Insiders collectively sold 12,354 units worth $504,428 over the last quarter.
The sell-side average EPS estimate for the full fiscal year stands at -$1.99, meaning losses aren’t going away anytime soon.
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