TLDR
- Roughly 21% of Binance-listed altcoins are now trading above their 200-day moving average, the highest level since September 2025.
- The 90-day AltSeason Index climbed to 28.6, its highest point in months, though it still falls well short of the 75% threshold for a confirmed altseason.
- Altcoin trading volume on centralized exchanges has been rising, with the 30-day moving average crossing above the 365-day moving average.
- Solana and XRP ETFs recorded heavy inflows on May 12, while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw outflows.
- Bitcoin dominance remains near its highest level since November 2025, meaning the trend still technically favors Bitcoin over altcoins.
Three separate sets of data are pointing in the same direction: altcoins may be quietly building momentum. Analysts are watching closely, but most are not ready to call it a full altseason just yet.
The most-cited data point comes from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, who noted that 21% of altcoins listed on Binance are now trading above their 200-day moving average. That is the highest reading since September 2025. It suggests more coins are recovering from their lows, which came after the altcoin sector fell more than 50% during the period of macroeconomic uncertainty tied to the US and Israel-Iran conflict.
Despite the improvement, Darkfost was cautious. During the stronger periods of mid-2025 and the fourth quarter of 2024, 60% to 80% of altcoins were trading above that same level. The current reading is still far below that range.
Trading Volume Points to Capital Rotation
A second signal comes from altcoin trading volume on centralized exchanges. Analyst CryptoOnchain noted that altcoin volume — excluding the five largest cryptocurrencies — has been rising steadily in recent weeks. The 30-day moving average for this volume has crossed above the 365-day moving average, a pattern historically linked to capital rotating from large-cap coins into smaller ones.
The analyst added that if the momentum holds, it could confirm that a broader altcoin rally is underway.
The 90-day AltSeason Index, tracked by CW8900 at CryptoQuant, climbed to 28.6, its highest reading in months. This index measures how many of the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market cap have outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days. A reading of 75 or higher is the standard threshold for a confirmed altseason. At 28.6, only around a quarter of top coins are outperforming Bitcoin.
Among the top performers over the past three months are ZCash, up 98%, Bittensor, up 72%, and Morpho, up 68%. Bitcoin itself gained 17% over the same period.
Institutional Flows Add to the Picture
On the technical side, the TOTAL2 chart — which tracks the combined market cap of all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin — has bounced off the lower boundary of a multi-year broadening wedge and broken above an ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart. Several analysts have cited this as a potential bottoming signal for the broader altcoin market.
TOTAL2 BREAKING OUT.
ALTSEASON IS INEVITABLE
$8 TRILLION TOTAL MC WILL PUMP ALTS 50-100X IN AVERAGE
DO NOT MISS THIS ONE IN A LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY
JUST BE SURE THAT YOU FOLLOWED ME WITH NOTIFICATIONS ON💥 pic.twitter.com/3hlrScDDVl
— Cup (@cryptocupra) May 13, 2026
Institutional flows added another data point on May 12. Solana and XRP ETFs both recorded heavy inflows on that day, while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw outflows. This was seen by some analysts as a sign that institutional money is beginning to move into alternative assets.
However, there are clear reasons for caution. The AltSeason Index reached its cycle peak in early 2024 and, even then, never hit the highs seen in previous altseasons. Bitcoin dominance has continued to climb since 2023 and is currently near its highest point since November 2025, which suggests the macro trend still favors Bitcoin.
The altcoin season index on CoinGlass also pulled back to 38 after reaching 46 on May 12, indicating that enthusiasm has cooled somewhat from earlier in the month.
