TLDR
- The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% when it concludes its meeting on Wednesday, January 29, 2026
- Markets show a 97% probability of no rate change, with potential cuts possibly delayed until June or December 2026
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET will be closely watched for hints about future rate policy and timeline
- Political tensions have escalated as President Trump pushes for faster rate cuts and investigates Powell over Fed headquarters renovations
- The crypto market is watching closely, with Bitcoin holding around $87,000 and the overall market up 1% in the past 24 hours ahead of the meeting
The Federal Reserve is set to conclude its first policy meeting of 2026 on Wednesday. Economists expect the central bank to maintain its current interest rate range.
The Federal Open Market Committee kicked off its two-day meeting on Tuesday. Markets are pricing in a 97% probability that rates will remain unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%.
FOMC meeting is almost here.
A rate cut this time is very unlikely.
The chance of a 25 BPS cut is just 3%.So the decision is basically made.
But the real market mover isn’t the rate… it’s the tone.
What the Fed says will matter more than what they do.
Because that tone… pic.twitter.com/PRzZCR247O
— Niels (@Web3Niels) January 27, 2026
The Fed cut rates three times in late 2025 after keeping them elevated to combat inflation. Officials reduced rates by a total of three-quarters of a percentage point during that period.
The rate cuts were designed to support a labor market that showed signs of weakness. However, recent data suggests the job market may be stabilizing.
December’s employment report showed the addition of approximately 50,000 jobs. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4% during the same period.
Consumer spending has remained strong despite earlier concerns about economic slowdown. Retail sales rose before the holiday season, prompting economists to revise their GDP projections upward.
Powell Press Conference Takes Center Stage
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Investors will parse his remarks for clues about the timing of future rate cuts.
Powell is expected to emphasize that monetary policy is in a “good place” right now. Oscar Munoz, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, expects Powell to remind markets that Fed officials still anticipate rate cuts this year.
Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted in recent weeks. A March rate cut, which seemed possible a month ago, now has only a 16% probability according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Some economists now predict the Fed may not cut rates at all in 2026. Others expect any cuts to be delayed until the second half of the year.
Political Tensions Cloud Fed Independence
Political questions may dominate Powell’s press conference more than economic policy. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed for not cutting rates faster.
The Department of Justice recently launched an investigation into the Fed’s headquarters renovations. Powell released a video response rejecting claims of mismanagement and calling the investigation a pretext to pressure the central bank.
Powell attended Supreme Court arguments last week in a case testing whether the president can fire a sitting Fed governor. The case involves Fed Governor Lisa Cook, whom Trump has attempted to remove.
Trump is expected to name Powell’s successor soon, as Powell’s term as chair expires in May. Speculation centers on former Fed governor Kevin Warsh or BlackRock executive Rick Rieder as potential nominees.
Powell could remain on the Board of Governors until 2028 even after his chair term ends. His decision on whether to stay may be influenced by recent political tensions.
The crypto market is monitoring the Fed meeting closely. Bitcoin prices are holding near $87,000, while Ethereum trades around $2,900.
The overall cryptocurrency market has seen a 1% increase over the past 24 hours. Traders view Fed policy as a key factor influencing crypto investment decisions.
January’s jobs report, due February 6, will provide more clarity on the Fed’s future path. One weak labor market report could prompt markets to reassign higher odds to an earlier rate cut.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
