TLDR
- JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin to hit $165K by 2025 due to ETF demand and gold correlation.
- Citi’s forecast sees Bitcoin reaching $133K with continued ETF inflows by year-end.
- Standard Chartered is highly bullish, predicting Bitcoin could reach $200K by December.
- Bitcoin’s price surge is linked to ETF growth and rotation from gold to digital assets.
Several major banks, including JPMorgan and Citi, are forecasting a strong rise in Bitcoin’s price for the fourth quarter of 2025. These institutions predict that Bitcoin could reach new record highs, driven by factors like ETF inflows and capital rotation from gold. Analysts are setting ambitious price targets for Bitcoin, ranging from $133,000 to $200,000 by the year’s end, suggesting a promising outlook for the digital asset in the coming months.
JPMorgan’s Outlook for Bitcoin
JPMorgan Chase analysts have set a target price of $165,000 for Bitcoin in 2025. This prediction is based on Bitcoin’s volatility relative to gold, indicating that Bitcoin has become an increasingly important asset class. According to the bank’s report, Bitcoin’s current market capitalization would need to grow by 42% to align with the $6 trillion in private gold holdings.
The analysts highlighted the rising Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio, which has now dropped below 2.0. As a result, they suggest Bitcoin could experience a significant price surge if capital continues to rotate from gold to Bitcoin.
The report also emphasizes the impact of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have seen substantial inflows this year. JPMorgan’s strategists believe that sustained ETF demand, alongside favorable macroeconomic conditions, could support Bitcoin’s price growth. If these factors hold steady, Bitcoin could approach its target of $165,000 in 2025, even as gold faces potential corrections due to overbought conditions.
Citi’s Forecast for Bitcoin’s Future
Citi has a more conservative estimate for Bitcoin’s price, with a forecast of $133,000 by year-end. While this prediction suggests a more modest rise of 8.75% from its current price, Citi also expects steady growth driven by continued ETF inflows. The bank noted that U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs are currently managing over $163 billion in BTC. Citi’s analysts predict that an additional $7.5 billion in ETF inflows could help maintain upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price as the year progresses.
However, Citi also considers a potential downside scenario in which Bitcoin’s price could drop to $83,000 if macroeconomic factors worsen. This could occur if recessionary fears intensify or if investor sentiment shifts away from riskier assets like Bitcoin. Despite this, Citi’s base case remains positive, with steady ETF demand and digital asset treasury allocations playing key roles in supporting Bitcoin’s market value.
Standard Chartered and VanEck’s Predictions
In addition to JPMorgan and Citi, other financial institutions like Standard Chartered and VanEck have also released optimistic Bitcoin price predictions. Standard Chartered is particularly bullish, forecasting that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 by December. The bank credits sustained ETF inflows and growing institutional adoption as key drivers of this potential price surge. Analysts from Standard Chartered also note that a weakening U.S. dollar and improving global liquidity conditions could provide further momentum for Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, asset management firm VanEck anticipates that Bitcoin will reach around $180,000 by 2025. This projection is based on the historical effects of Bitcoin halving events. VanEck suggests that the 2024 halving will likely trigger a supply squeeze, creating favorable conditions for Bitcoin’s price to rise, particularly with the added demand from ETFs and digital asset treasuries.
Bitcoin’s Price Movement and Market Factors
Bitcoin’s recent price action shows signs of momentum as it bounces by over 13% in the past week, nearing its all-time high of $124,500. Analysts attribute much of this growth to capital rotation from gold markets, where gold’s price has surged by about 48% this year. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a lagging correlation with gold, meaning that as gold’s rally slows, Bitcoin might benefit from a shift in investor focus.
With ETF inflows expected to remain robust and macroeconomic factors shifting in Bitcoin’s favor, the fourth quarter of 2025 could bring further price gains. However, with varying predictions from different financial institutions, Bitcoin’s future performance remains uncertain, dependent on both global economic conditions and investor sentiment.
