TLDR
- Bitcoin broke above $122,000 in Thursday trading on October 2, 2025
- JPMorgan Chase raised its year-end Bitcoin price target from $126,000 to $165,000
- The bank says Bitcoin is undervalued by $46,000 compared to gold on a volatility-adjusted basis
- Bitcoin ETFs attracted $675.8 million in inflows on October 1, led by BlackRock and Fidelity
- Open interest in Bitcoin reached $80.4 billion, the highest level since mid-September
Bitcoin broke through the $122,000 price level during trading on Thursday, October 2, 2025. The move came as JPMorgan Chase updated its year-end price forecast for the cryptocurrency.
JPMorgan analysts raised their Bitcoin price target to $165,000 for the end of 2025. The bank previously set a target of $126,000 in August. The new projection represents a potential 42% increase from current levels.
The bank based its updated forecast on Bitcoin’s valuation compared to gold. JPMorgan uses a volatility-adjusted basis to compare the two assets. According to their analysis, the BTC-to-gold volatility ratio has fallen below 2.0.
This ratio suggests Bitcoin needs to rise about 42% to match private gold investment levels. The bank now values Bitcoin as undervalued by $46,000. This reverses their position from late 2024 when they considered Bitcoin overvalued by $36,000.
JPMorgan analysts point to a retail-driven “debasement trade” as a key factor. Investors are buying Bitcoin and gold ETFs as protection against various economic concerns. These include government deficits, inflation, questions about central bank credibility, and weakening fiat currencies in emerging markets.
The bank notes that institutions remain more active in CME futures trading. However, ETF data shows retail investors are the dominant force in spot Bitcoin markets.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Continue
Bitcoin ETFs recorded $675.8 million in net inflows on October 1. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $405.5 million in inflows. Fidelity’s FBTC came second with $179.3 million.
Open interest in Bitcoin markets climbed to $80.4 billion. This marks the highest level since mid-September. The increase suggests stronger institutional hedging activity.
Government Shutdown Concerns
The Bitcoin price move coincides with headlines about a potential U.S. government shutdown. A shutdown could affect the approval process for new cryptocurrency ETFs. ETFPrime host Nate Geraci stated that a prolonged shutdown would impact the launch of new spot crypto ETFs.
Gold prices have also rallied recently. This trend has helped highlight Bitcoin’s relative value according to JPMorgan’s analysis. The bank’s analysts use this comparison as part of their valuation framework.
JPMorgan’s previous Bitcoin price target was set in August at $126,000. The new $165,000 target represents a 31% increase from that earlier projection. The update reflects changing market conditions and the bank’s view on Bitcoin’s valuation relative to gold.
