TLDR
- Lucid reports Q4 2025 earnings on February 24, with options traders pricing in a 14.87% move in either direction.
- Wall Street expects a loss of $2.67 per share and revenue of ~$459.5 million, up ~96% year-over-year.
- Lucid recently cut about 12% of its U.S. workforce, targeting improved gross margins.
- The stock is down 10% year-to-date and carries a consensus Moderate Sell rating.
- Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg holds a Buy rating with a $30 price target, noting profitability is likely 2026–2027 at the earliest.
Lucid Group is set to report its Q4 2025 earnings on Tuesday, February 24, and the options market is signaling a bumpy ride.
Options traders are pricing in a move of 14.87% in either direction following the report. That’s nearly double Lucid’s average post-earnings move of 7.73% over the past four quarters.
The stock has already dropped 10% year-to-date, underperforming the broader automobile manufacturing segment, which is up 7.1% over the past month.
Heading into the print, Wall Street expects Lucid to post a loss of $2.67 per share. That would be worse than the $2.20 loss reported in Q4 2024.
On the revenue side, analysts are projecting roughly $459.5 million — a 96% jump from the same quarter last year. Growth is clearly expected, but profitability remains a distant goal.
Lucid has missed earnings estimates five times in the past nine quarters. It also missed revenue expectations last quarter, when it reported $336.6 million — up 68.3% year-over-year but still short of Wall Street’s bar.
Layoffs and Restructuring
Just ahead of the earnings release, TechCrunch reported that Lucid is laying off around 12% of its U.S. workforce. The cuts are focused on non-hourly and salaried roles.
Hourly production workers at its Arizona plant, along with logistics and quality teams, are not affected.
The company says the restructuring is aimed at improving gross margins and accelerating its path to profitability.
What Analysts Are Watching
Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg reiterated a Buy rating on LCID with a $30 price target ahead of the report.
Legg noted that Lucid already posted solid Q4 operating numbers, with deliveries coming in slightly above his estimates. He said the earnings call will be more about margins as the Gravity SUV ramps up, cost control, and cash runway.
He doesn’t expect profitability until 2026 or 2027, as production scales and costs come down.
The broader analyst consensus tells a different story. LCID holds a Moderate Sell rating based on two Hold and one Sell recommendation over the past three months.
The average price target sits at $12.67, which implies about 30% upside from current levels — though one outlier target of $30 from Benchmark is pulling that average. The stock was last trading around $9.59.
Peers in the auto segment have already reported mixed results. General Motors posted a 5.1% revenue decline and missed estimates, yet the stock rallied 6.9%. Autoliv beat estimates but fell 4.7% after its report.
Lucid’s Q4 earnings are scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.
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