TLDR
- Lucid reports Q1 FY26 earnings on May 5, with options traders pricing in a 13.30% move in either direction.
- Wall Street expects revenue of ~$370 million, up 57% year-over-year, and a loss of $2.35 per share.
- Uber now holds an 11.52% passive stake in Lucid and expanded its vehicle order to at least 35,000 units for its robotaxi network.
- The Gravity SUV faced a 29-day delivery pause in Q1 due to a supplier issue — recovery will be closely watched.
- LCID stock is down 38% year-to-date, with a consensus Hold rating and an average price target of $13.13.
Lucid Group will post its first-quarter 2026 results on Tuesday, May 5. The stock is coming in battered — down 38% year-to-date — and the options market is braced for a big swing, pricing in a 13.30% move in either direction. That’s more than double Lucid’s average post-earnings move of 5.24% over the past four quarters.
At current prices around $6.53, Wall Street’s average price target of $13.13 implies over 100% upside. But that gap between target and reality hasn’t been closing fast.
Revenue expectations for Q1 come in at $369.99 million — a 57% jump from the same quarter a year ago. That would also represent an improvement over the 36.1% growth rate posted in Q1 2025. On the bottom line, analysts see a loss of $2.35 per share, slightly improved from the $2.40 loss recorded a year earlier.
Lucid has missed earnings estimates six times in the past nine quarters. It has also missed revenue estimates multiple times over the past two years. The bar for a genuine surprise is set, but so is the skepticism.
The Gravity SUV Stumble
One of the key stories heading into this print is the Gravity SUV. The vehicle hit a 29-day delivery pause during Q1 due to a supplier issue. Production held up, but deliveries didn’t. Investors will want to know how quickly that’s been resolved and whether it puts Lucid’s full-year production target of 25,000 to 27,000 vehicles at risk.
Lucid’s last quarterly report showed revenue of $522.7 million, up 123% year-over-year. But that came alongside a miss on both adjusted operating income and EBITDA, keeping analyst sentiment cautious.
Meanwhile, the broader auto manufacturing segment has been having a better time of it. Sector stocks are up 9.4% on average over the past month. Lucid is down 30% over that same period.
The Uber Deal
The most consequential development ahead of this earnings report may be Lucid’s expanding relationship with Uber. In April, Uber added $200 million to its investment in Lucid, bringing its total commitment to $500 million. It also increased its vehicle order to at least 35,000 units for a planned global robotaxi fleet.
A regulatory filing confirmed that Uber now holds an 11.52% passive stake in Lucid — making it the second-largest shareholder behind Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.
Investors will be listening for concrete timelines on when Lucid vehicles will start rolling into Uber’s robotaxi network.
RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan trimmed his price target on LCID to $8 from $10 ahead of the report, keeping a Sector Perform rating. The firm cited macro pressure on auto stocks, including Middle East tensions.
Of the 10 Wall Street analysts covering Lucid, the consensus is a Hold — seven Holds, two Sells, and one Buy issued over the past three months.
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