TLDR:
- Carney’s Liberal Party has won the Canadian election, securing at least a minority government
- Pierre Poilievre lost his own parliamentary seat to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy
- Crypto was barely mentioned during the campaign despite Poilievre’s past pro-Bitcoin stance
- Poilievre’s early lead of 80% in prediction markets reversed completely by election day
- U.S.-Canada relations and Trump’s tariffs became key election issues, hurting Poilievre
Mark Carney will remain Canada’s Prime Minister after his Liberal Party secured enough seats to form at least a minority government in Monday’s election.
The former central banker defeated Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who not only lost the premiership but also his own seat in Parliament.
As of midnight Eastern Time, the Liberals had won approximately 162 seats, short of the 172 needed for a majority government. Final results were still coming in, with the CBC reporting it remained unclear if Carney would reach majority status.
The outcome represents a dramatic reversal from earlier predictions. For over a year, prediction markets like Polymarket had given Poilievre an 80% chance of becoming Prime Minister.
But Carney surged ahead in the final weeks of the campaign. The Economist’s poll of polls ultimately gave him an 88% chance of winning, while EKOS Politics projected the Liberals would secure 43.6% of votes compared to the Conservatives’ 37.5%.
The Trump Factor
What caused Poilievre’s dramatic fall from frontrunner to defeated candidate? The answer appears to lie south of the border.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs on Canadian goods and reported threats regarding Canada’s sovereignty became central campaign issues. A mid-March poll from the Angus Reid Institute showed 55% of voters believed Carney’s Liberals were better equipped to handle the U.S.-Canada trade war.
The Conservative leader’s early campaign strategy mirrored Trump’s approach, featuring a “Canada First” slogan and opposition to what he called the Liberal Party’s “radical woke agenda.” These similarities initially boosted his popularity.
But as tensions with the U.S. escalated after Trump’s January inauguration, Poilievre’s Trump-like positioning became a liability. On February 1, Polymarket gave him an 83% chance of victory.
By March 25, those odds had plummeted to 51%, before Carney took the lead. Even Poilievre’s election day tweet that Trump should “stay out of our election” failed to reverse the trend.
The Liberal victory caps a contentious five-week election cycle triggered when Carney called a snap election last month.
Pro-Crypto Stance
Despite Poilievre’s well-known pro-cryptocurrency stance, digital assets played almost no role in this year’s campaign.
Poilievre had previously pledged to make Canada the “blockchain capital of the world” and opposed central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). He shared these positions with Trump, who banned the creation of a digital dollar via executive order early in his term.
Carney, conversely, has historically been critical of Bitcoin. In 2018, he stated, “It is not a store of value because it is all over the map. Nobody uses it as a medium of exchange.” Instead, he has supported CBDCs.
However, Carney’s current crypto views remain unclear. His platform broadly stated that “Canada should lead the world in AI, tech, and digital industries” without specifically addressing cryptocurrency.
The minimal focus on crypto in Canada’s election contrasts sharply with the United States, where digital asset policy helped swing Congressional races and contributed to Trump’s return to the White House.
On Polymarket, election-related betting was robust. A contract on Canada’s next Prime Minister crossed $100 million in volume, with a dozen other election-related questions generating nearly another $100 million collectively.
Under Canada’s Westminster system, the Liberals’ minority government may require support from either the Bloc Quebecois or the New Democrat Party to pass legislation in the House of Commons.
