TLDR
- Q1 revenue grew 14.2% year-over-year to $7.25 billion, beating estimates.
- EPS came in at $3.73, topping forecasts by 4.48%.
- Purchase volume fell short of analyst estimates in all regions.
- Stock is up 24.5% over the past year but flat over the past month.
- Mastercard carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), signaling market-neutral prospects.
Mastercard (NYSE: MA) shares traded at $547.31 on Thursday afternoon, down 0.14% as investors digested the company’s Q1 2025 report. Mastercard’s latest results showed solid headline beats, though regional transaction volumes came in lighter than expected.
Despite the upbeat revenue and profit figures, Mastercard’s performance in purchase volumes missed Wall Street forecasts across key geographic markets. Total switched transactions rose to 40.1 billion, slightly below the 40.29 billion predicted by analysts.
The payments giant reported revenue of $7.25 billion, a 14.2% increase year-over-year and ahead of the $7.12 billion consensus estimate. Earnings per share (EPS) reached $3.73, exceeding expectations of $3.57 and marking a 4.48% surprise.
Mastercard $MA Reports a Strong Q1 🎯
✅ Rev: $7.25B vs $7.11B (est) | +14% YoY
✅ EPS: $3.73 vs $3.57 (est) | +13% YoY
$2.5B worth of shares repurchased through Q1 25’ | $11.8B remaining under approved share repurchase programs 💵 pic.twitter.com/zpXW50GWFV
— Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® (@DimitryNakhla) May 1, 2025
Regional Volumes Under Pressure
Mastercard’s global purchase volume totaled $1.99 trillion, trailing the $2.04 trillion expected. This shortfall was consistent across every region:
- In the U.S., purchase volume hit $699 billion, narrowly missing the $701 billion target.
- Europe recorded $651 billion, versus $663.6 billion expected.
- Asia Pacific, Middle East, and Africa (APMEA) reached $437 billion, under the $450.9 billion forecast.
- Latin America saw $148 billion, down from the $162.7 billion estimate.
- Canada posted $58 billion, shy of the $62.7 billion projected.
Gross dollar volumes also underwhelmed. For instance, Europe tallied $805 billion, missing the $840.8 billion average estimate, while Latin America came in at $202 billion against $224.1 billion predicted.
Shares Holding Steady
Shares of Mastercard have returned 24.5% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500’s 12.2% gain in the same period. Year to date, MA stock is up 4.2%, again ahead of the S&P 500’s 4.3% decline. However, over the past month, Mastercard shares have been flat, showing just a 0.1% gain amid broader market volatility.
Looking further back, Mastercard boasts a strong track record, delivering a 53.3% return over the past three years and a 109.4% gain over five years — outpacing the broader index in both timeframes.
Outlook Remains Cautious
With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), Mastercard is expected to perform in line with the market in the near term. The company’s steady top-line growth is offset by softer-than-expected transaction volumes, suggesting some macroeconomic pressures may be weighing on global consumer spending. Investors will likely look for stronger regional rebound trends in the upcoming quarters to drive further upside in MA stock.
