TLDR
- MELI stock is trading around $1,818, down from a 52-week high of $2,645.22
- Q1 earnings drop Thursday, with consensus EPS estimate of $8.52
- Analysts hold a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average price target of $2,685.33
- Institutional investors own 87.62% of MELI, with several firms adding to positions
- Fintech revenue grew 46% and commerce revenue grew 34% in 2025
MercadoLibre stock is trading around $1,818 heading into its first-quarter earnings report Thursday, well off its 52-week high of $2,645.22. The pullback has drawn attention from analysts and institutional investors who see the dip as a potential entry point.
The stock opened at $1,818.23 on Wednesday and carries a market cap of roughly $92.2 billion. Its 50-day moving average sits at $1,757, while its 200-day average is $1,969.
Wall Street expects MELI to report EPS of $8.52 for Q1, a slight year-over-year dip. But the forward picture looks stronger, with analysts projecting EPS to jump over 20% this year to $47.36, and climb over 40% in 2027 to $66.41.
The recent selloff stems from concerns around Latin American macro conditions, rising competition, and margin pressure as the company ramps up investment. Management’s tone on the earnings call is expected to matter more than the numbers themselves.
Gross merchandise value growth has picked up in Brazil over the past two quarters. Unit logistics costs fell 11% in the most recent quarter, pointing to improving efficiency.
In 2025, fintech revenue surged 46% year-over-year. Commerce revenue, driven by its marketplace, rose 34%. Gross margins remain above 40%, though they’ve edged lower recently.
Harel Insurance Investments boosted its MELI stake by 56.3% in Q4, adding 1,633 shares to bring its total to 4,531, valued at around $9.1 million. Institutional investors now hold 87.62% of the company.
Other firms have also been buying. Barlow Wealth Partners grew its position by 126.7% in Q3. Massachusetts Financial Services added 10,849 shares, a 14.3% increase. Principal Financial Group raised its stake by 18.7%.
Analyst Price Targets
Susquehanna’s James Friedman reiterated a $2,400 price target ahead of earnings, calling it a “good setup.” He noted that recent fuel price increases are only expected to push logistics costs up in the mid-single digit range.
Jefferies upgraded MELI from Hold to Buy in April, while trimming its target from $2,800 to $2,600. BTIG reiterated a Buy with a $2,400 target. Cantor Fitzgerald kept an Overweight rating with a $2,350 target.
Out of 19 analyst ratings tracked by MarketBeat, 15 are Buy, one is Strong Buy, two are Hold, and one is Sell. The consensus price target stands at $2,685.33.
Competition and Investment Cycle
MELI has been deliberately increasing spending — lowering the free shipping threshold in Brazil, ramping up marketing, and issuing more credit cards. The company views these as long-term moat-strengthening moves.
Competition includes Amazon, Walmart’s Mexican unit Walmex, fintech rival Nu Holdings, and Temu. Despite the crowded field, MELI’s market share has held steady.
The stock currently trades at 27 times next year’s expected earnings. That’s considered low relative to its five-year average, which has historically been in the triple digits.
Q1 earnings are due Thursday before markets open.
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