TLDR
- Aletheia Capital analyst Warren Lau raised his Micron price target from $315 to $650 — a 106% increase and a new Street-high
- The bullish case is built on strong AI-driven demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and tight supply through 2026–2027
- Lau doubled his FY26 earnings estimates and tripled FY27 forecasts for Micron
- Micron is set to report Q2 FY26 earnings on March 18, with Wall Street expecting EPS of $8.52 on revenue of $18.85 billion
- HBM4 shipments have begun ahead of schedule, targeting mass production in 2026 to align with next-gen NVIDIA and AMD GPUs
Micron Technology (MU) stock has been getting some serious attention on Wall Street. Aletheia Capital analyst Warren Lau has raised his price target on MU to $650 — the highest on the Street — up from a previous target of $315. That’s a 106% jump in target, implying around 75.5% upside from current price levels.
Lau lifted his forecasts after concluding that AI demand for memory chips is stronger and more durable than previously expected. He doubled his FY26 earnings estimates and tripled his FY27 outlook — a rare and aggressive revision.
The core of the bull case is high-bandwidth memory. HBM supply is reportedly sold out through 2026, and management has projected strong margins in the coming quarters. Lau sees this scarcity as a driver of elevated average selling prices well into 2027.
The analyst also pointed to the rise of agentic AI — systems that take actions autonomously — as a new demand driver. These applications require not just HBM, but server DRAM, SRAM, and CXL-based memory systems, broadening the revenue opportunity for Micron.
On the supply side, the picture looks tight for years. New DRAM and NAND capacity is expected to remain limited through 2026 and 2027, with new NAND cleanrooms unlikely before 2028. Constrained supply plus rising demand is a straightforward recipe for pricing power.
Lau also flagged Micron’s automotive segment as a growth driver. Average vehicle memory content is projected to nearly triple by 2026, driven by generative AI applications in autonomous vehicles.
HBM4 Ahead of Schedule
Micron has already begun HBM4 shipments ahead of schedule, with mass production targeted for 2026. The timing aligns with NVIDIA and AMD’s next-generation GPU launches, positioning Micron to capture premium pricing in that cycle.
Lau believes Micron could become one of the world’s largest chip suppliers over the coming years. He projects the company will generate between $150 billion and $200 billion in cash flow in FY26 and FY27 combined.
Micron is currently trading at a P/E of 37.9, with revenue growth of 45.4% over the last twelve months and an operating margin of 32.5%.
Risks Still on the Table
It’s not all upside. Lau flagged risks including demand shifts, execution challenges, and geopolitical tensions. Micron has also seen brutal drawdowns historically — 82% during the Dot-Com crash and 88% in the Global Financial Crisis.
More recent risks include peak cycle valuation concerns, executive departures, and unresolved securities fraud litigation.
The broader Wall Street view on MU remains constructive. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it a Buy and one has a Hold. The average price target sits at $426.41, implying around 15% upside — well below Lau’s Street-high $650.
Micron reports Q2 FY26 earnings on March 18. Wall Street is expecting EPS of $8.52 on revenue of $18.85 billion.
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