TLDR
- Micron reports Q2 earnings today (March 18) with Wall Street expecting a record $9.19 EPS — up from $1.56 last year
- Revenue is projected at $19.8 billion, a 146% jump year-over-year and the highest growth rate this century
- Every HBM chip Micron can produce through end of 2026 is already sold out under binding long-term agreements
- Gross profit margins are projected at ~68-69%, approaching Nvidia’s 75%
- HBM4 chips entered high-volume production a full quarter ahead of schedule, locking in Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform supply
Micron Technology goes into its second-quarter earnings today riding one of the strongest setups the memory industry has ever seen.
Wall Street expects adjusted EPS of $9.19 — a new record and more than five times last year’s $1.56. Revenue is projected at $19.8 billion, up 146% year-over-year. That would be the highest growth rate for the company this century.
The stock rose 4.5% on Tuesday and was trading up 0.63% in pre-market Wednesday. It closed Tuesday at $461.69, up 255% over the past six months.
The driver behind all of this is AI. Data centers are burning through high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips at a pace the industry simply cannot keep up with. Micron has confirmed it can only fulfill 50% to two-thirds of memory orders from its largest customers. The gap between supply and demand is that wide.
Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson raised his price target to $500, noting that Micron’s entire HBM production capacity for the rest of 2026 is “100% sold out under binding long-term agreements.” That kind of visibility is new territory for a company that has historically dealt with volatile demand swings tied to PCs and smartphones.
Supply Squeeze Expected to Last Into 2027
The shortage isn’t going away soon. No meaningful new memory capacity is expected to come online before mid-2027. That means the pricing power Micron currently has — and the elevated margins that come with it — could stick around for a while longer.
Gross margins for the quarter are projected at around 68-69%. To put that in context, Nvidia’s industry-leading margin sits at about 75%. For a memory company, that kind of profitability is extraordinary.
For over a decade, the memory business ran on a predictable cycle: demand spikes, factories ramp, supply floods the market, prices crash. AI has thrown that playbook out. The cost and time required to build new HBM capacity means the usual relief valve — a flood of new supply — isn’t coming anytime soon.
HBM4 Already in Production
Micron also revealed that its HBM4 36GB chips have entered high-volume production, a full quarter ahead of schedule. These chips are built for Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin AI platform, locking in Micron as a key supplier for what’s expected to be one of the most powerful AI computing systems on the market.
Wells Fargo analysts said the early production ramp “confirms the strength of the AI-driven memory super-cycle.”
TipRanks shows a Strong Buy consensus on Micron from 25 analysts, with one Hold. The average 12-month price target sits at $465.80, implying about 0.9% upside from Tuesday’s close.
Results are due after the market closes today, March 18.
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