TLDR
- Moderna stock jumped nearly 8% in premarket trading after beating Q1 revenue estimates
- Q1 revenue more than tripled year-over-year to $389 million, vs. estimates of $228 million
- International sales drove growth at $311 million, led by partnerships in the UK, Canada, and Australia
- Net loss per share of $3.40 beat estimates of $3.96, though results include a ~$900 million patent settlement charge
- Moderna maintained its 2026 revenue growth forecast of up to 10%
Moderna stock was up nearly 8% in premarket trading Friday after the company posted first-quarter results that beat Wall Street expectations on both revenue and earnings.
Q1 revenue came in at $389 million, more than tripling from $108 million a year ago. That topped analyst estimates of roughly $228 million, according to LSEG data.
$MRNA (Moderna) #earnings are out: pic.twitter.com/R1T28S23Jx
— The Earnings Correspondent (@earnings_guy) May 1, 2026
The big driver was international COVID-19 vaccine sales. International revenue hit $311 million, compared to just $78 million from U.S. markets.
Moderna leveraged long-term government partnerships in the UK, Canada, and Australia to push those numbers higher. CFO Jamey Mock said the company’s story has “really become a more balanced international versus U.S. story.”
That’s a notable shift. In previous quarters, Moderna had been warning investors that COVID vaccine revenue was declining. This quarter flipped that narrative.
The U.S. market remains more complicated. Sweeping changes to vaccine policy under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have reduced domestic vaccine use. Mock said the company is “looking for a more stable COVID market in 2026 in the U.S.” and hopes much of that uncertainty is “behind us.”
Losses Narrowed But Include Large Settlement Charge
Moderna posted a net loss of $1.34 billion, or $3.40 per share. That beat analyst estimates of a $3.96 loss per share.
However, that figure includes a roughly $900 million charge tied to a patent settlement with Genevant Sciences and Arbutus Biopharma. The two companies had accused Moderna of using their patented lipid nanoparticle delivery technology in its Spikevax COVID vaccine without permission.
Moderna reached a settlement in March. That charge also pushed the company’s expected cost of sales for full-year 2026 up to $1.8 billion, from a prior forecast of $900 million.
The company cut both research and administrative expenses in the quarter, helping narrow overall losses.
Pipeline and Outlook
Moderna reiterated its 2026 revenue growth forecast of up to 10%, with roughly half coming from international markets — up from 38% last year.
Second-quarter revenue is expected to come in between $50 million and $100 million, evenly split between the U.S. and international markets.
RBC Capital analyst Luca Issi noted that Moderna’s full-year revenue is weighted toward the second half of 2026, with only about 15% expected in the first half.
Beyond COVID, Moderna has late-stage data expected for a norovirus vaccine and an individualized cancer vaccine being developed with Merck. The FDA has set an August 5 decision date for Moderna’s mRNA-based flu vaccine, after the company resolved an earlier dispute with the regulator over trial design flaws.
Moderna also has a treatment in development for a rare metabolic disorder as part of its push into areas beyond infectious disease.
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