TLDR
- Netflix fell roughly 3% on Thursday, trading around $91–$92, down ~17% over the past four weeks
- The stock sits below its SMA-200 ($108.71), pointing to longer-term bearish pressure
- Paid net additions slowed to 2.68 million — down 46% year-on-year — raising growth questions
- Co-CEO Ted Sarandos traveled to Europe to lobby against complex EU streaming regulations
- Wall Street still leans bullish, with a consensus Buy rating and average price target near $114–$119
Netflix closed Thursday near $91, continuing a rough March as investors weigh slowing growth against a still-elevated valuation. The stock is now down roughly 17% over the past four weeks and about 30% from its October highs.
The sell-off is not tied to one single event. Instead, it reflects a broader reassessment of how much investors are willing to pay for Netflix’s growth story right now.
Netflix is trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple in the low 70s. That’s a number that demands near-perfect execution across advertising, live events, and franchise content.
The company posted Q4 2025 revenue of $12.05 billion and free cash flow of $9.5 billion — solid numbers by any measure. But management flagged a 10% rise in content spending for 2026, plus $275 million in costs tied to its now-abandoned bid for Warner Bros. Discovery.
That deal, a proposed $83 billion cash offer, was walked back in late February. The reversal triggered a brief relief rally, but Thursday’s weakness suggests the market is still processing what the standalone strategy looks like.
Paid net additions came in at just 2.68 million — a 46% year-on-year drop. That number has sharpened the debate about how far ad-tier growth and pricing can carry the stock from here.
Sarandos Takes the European Tour
While the stock dipped, co-CEO Ted Sarandos was in Brussels making the case for simpler streaming rules under the EU’s Audiovisual Media Services Directive.
His message to European regulators: don’t create a “patchwork of national mandates” that makes it impossible to plan production. He also called out YouTube, saying Europe has been treating it like a minor player rather than a genuine streaming competitor.
“It doesn’t make it a very healthy business environment if you don’t know if the rules are going to change midway through production,” Sarandos told Politico.
The trip didn’t move markets positively. Netflix slipped further in the final minutes of Tuesday’s session as those comments made the rounds.
BTS Returns on Netflix
On a lighter note, Netflix is hosting the first BTS performance in three years. The K-Pop group will play at Gwanghwamun Square, drawing from their fifth album, ARIRANG, which releases the day before the show.
A documentary, BTS: The Return, follows one week later, covering the making of the album.
What Wall Street Thinks
Despite the downturn, analysts aren’t walking away. Of 34 to 36 covering analysts, the majority rate Netflix a Buy or Strong Buy. Average 12-month price targets sit between $114 and $119, implying around 25% upside from current levels. Some targets stretch to $150; more cautious calls sit near $95.
The key technical level to watch is $87.50. Multiple analysts flagged this as the line in the sand — a break below it could accelerate the downside.
Netflix’s SMA-200 currently sits at $108.71, well above the current price, underscoring that the longer-term trend has not yet turned.
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