TLDR
- NIO (NYSE:NIO) will report quarterly earnings on March 4th, with analysts expecting -$0.42 EPS and $20.19 billion revenue
- NIO stock currently trades at $4.25, down from its 2021 high of $62.84, with a market cap of $8.87 billion
- Analyst consensus has shifted bearish with a “Hold” rating (2 sell, 10 hold, 1 buy, 1a strong buy)
- Vehicle deliveries increased 39% in 2024 to 221,970 units, with margins improving to 15% by Q4
- Growth catalysts include China market share gains, premium vehicle sales, and European expansion despite tariff challenges
NIO is scheduled to release its quarterly earnings report before markets open on Tuesday, March 4th. Wall Street analysts project the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer will announce earnings of negative $0.42 per share alongside revenue of $20.19 billion for the quarter.
The company’s stock closed at $4.25 on Monday, down $0.38 for the day. This represents a substantial decline from its record high of $62.84 reached in February 2021.
Trading volume was notably elevated with 79.7 million shares changing hands. This exceeds the average daily volume of 51.7 million shares.
NIO currently holds a market capitalization of $8.87 billion. The stock carries a price-to-earnings ratio of -2.81 and a beta of 1.68, indicating higher volatility than the broader market.
The company’s stock has demonstrated weak performance over recent periods. It holds a 200-day moving average price of $4.80 and a 50-day moving average of $4.36.
NIO’s 52-week trading range spans from a low of $3.61 to a high of $7.71. This price action highlights the stock’s continued downward trajectory since its 2021 peak.
The company maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.98. Its liquidity measures include a quick ratio of 0.93 and a current ratio of 1.04.
Wall Street analysts have grown increasingly bearish on NIO’s prospects. The consensus rating stands at “Hold” with an average price target of $5.38.
Several major financial institutions have downgraded their outlook on NIO in recent months. JPMorgan Chase reduced the stock from “overweight” to “neutral” in February, lowering its price target from $7.00 to $4.70.
HSBC downgraded NIO twice, moving from “strong-buy” to “hold” in January after previously downgrading from “buy” to “hold” in November. Goldman Sachs issued a “sell” rating in November, cutting its price target from $4.80 to $3.90.
The current analyst breakdown shows two sell ratings, ten hold ratings, one buy rating, and one strong buy rating. This distribution reflects growing skepticism about NIO’s near-term prospects.
NIO’s core business revolves around manufacturing electric vehicles with a unique battery-swapping technology. This system allows drivers to exchange depleted batteries for fully charged ones at specialized stations rather than waiting for traditional charging.
Beyond China
The company’s product lineup includes electric sedans and SUVs. NIO has expanded its operations beyond China into European markets, though higher tariffs on Chinese EVs present challenges to its international growth strategy.
Vehicle deliveries have shown improvement after a period of deceleration. After slowing to 34% growth in 2022 and 31% in 2023, deliveries accelerated to 39% growth in 2024, reaching 221,970 vehicles.
January 2025 continued this positive trend with a 38% year-over-year increase in deliveries. This suggests the company may maintain its delivery momentum into the current year.
Vehicle margins have stabilized after falling from 20.2% in 2021 to 9.5% in 2023. The metric improved sequentially through 2024, reaching 13.1% in the third quarter.
Management has expressed confidence that fourth-quarter vehicle margins will hit 15%, establishing this as the “baseline” margin for 2025. This outlook counters concerns about pricing pressure in China’s competitive EV market.
Growth Strategy
NIO’s growth strategy focuses on gaining market share in China through premium vehicle sales like the ET7 Executive Edition sedan. The company is also pursuing growth through its more affordable Onvo smart vehicles and new Firefly compact EV.
European expansion represents another growth avenue, with plans to launch the Firefly compact EV in Europe during the first half of 2025. This model will compete with smaller vehicles from BMW’s Mini brand and the Smart joint venture between Mercedes-Benz and Geely.
Financial projections from analysts call for revenue growth of 23% in 2024, 43% in 2025, and 24% in 2026. Despite these growth expectations, NIO trades at less than one times its projected 2025 sales.
By comparison, Tesla trades at eight times its projected 2025 sales. This valuation gap highlights the market’s discounted view of Chinese EV manufacturers relative to their Western counterparts.
NIO continues to operate at a loss, but receives substantial subsidies from the Chinese government. This support provides financial stability despite the company’s high debt-to-equity ratio of 7.6 reported at the end of Q3 2024.
Investors will closely monitor Tuesday’s earnings report for signs of continued margin improvement and updated delivery guidance for 2025. These metrics could prove pivotal in determining whether NIO can sustain its recent delivery momentum and progress toward profitability.
