TLDR
- NIO stock jumped 6% to $4.70 Thursday after announcing its first-ever quarterly adjusted operating profit
- Company expects Q4 2025 adjusted operating profit of $100 million to $172 million versus $832 million loss last year
- January 2026 deliveries surged 96.1% year-over-year to 27,182 vehicles, driven by strong ES8 demand
- Fourth quarter deliveries hit 125,000 vehicles, up from 73,000 in the same period last year
- Wall Street analysts maintain Moderate Buy rating with average price target of $6.03, implying 28% upside
NIO stock closed up 5.9% at $4.70 Thursday after the Chinese electric vehicle maker dropped a bombshell: the company expects its first-ever quarterly adjusted operating profit.
The announcement caught Wall Street off guard. Analysts had been expecting an $80 million loss for the fourth quarter of 2025.
Instead, NIO projects adjusted operating profit between RMB700 million and RMB1.2 billion, which translates to $100 million to $172 million. That’s a massive swing from the $832 million adjusted operating loss posted in the same quarter last year.
On a standard accounting basis, the company expects operating profit of $29 million to $100 million. The adjusted figures exclude share-based compensation expenses.
The profit turnaround comes as broader markets struggled. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both dropped about 1.2% Thursday.
Strong Delivery Numbers Drive Profitability
The profit forecast follows solid delivery performance. NIO delivered roughly 125,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, a jump from about 73,000 in the prior-year quarter.
January 2026 deliveries tell a similar story. The company reported 27,182 vehicles delivered, representing a 96.1% year-over-year increase.
The ES8 model drove much of that January strength. However, deliveries fell 43.5% month-over-month from December, showing some post-holiday cooldown.
What’s Behind the Profit Swing
NIO credits three main factors for reaching profitability. Higher vehicle sales provided the foundation.
An improved product mix boosted margins. And tighter cost controls helped the bottom line as production volumes climbed.
The company cautioned that these figures remain preliminary and unaudited. Final results could shift when NIO reports full fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 numbers in March.
Wall Street expects the momentum to continue. Analysts forecast a Q4 loss per share of just $0.01, a huge improvement from the $0.39 loss reported a year earlier.
Revenue estimates sit at $4.20 billion for the quarter. That compares to $2.7 billion in the prior-year period.
The stock has traveled a long road to get here. NIO shares remain down about 93% from their all-time closing high of $62.84 reached in February 2021.
Coming into Thursday’s trading session, the stock was up only about 6% over the past 12 months.
Wall Street’s Take on NIO
Analysts maintain a Moderate Buy consensus rating on the stock. The rating breaks down to three Buys, two Holds, and one Sell among recommendations issued in the last three months.
The average price target stands at $6.03. That implies 28.3% upside potential from current levels.
NIO will release its complete fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results in March.
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