TLDR:
- Novo Nordisk beat Q1 earnings expectations but cut full-year guidance
- Wegovy sales slowed, missing estimates at $2.6 million, while Ozempic sales exceeded expectations
- Novo still holds 72% of global GLP-1 market despite Eli Lilly gaining ground
- FDA ended the shortage designation for GLP-1 drugs, which will reduce compounded versions
- Strategic deals with CVS and telehealth companies aim to maintain market share
Novo Nordisk (NVO) saw its stock jump over 5% in premarket trading Wednesday after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, despite cutting its full-year sales guidance. The Danish pharmaceutical company, known for its blockbuster weight loss and diabetes drugs, posted revenue of $11.9 billion, in line with Wall Street expectations, while beating earnings per share estimates with $0.99 compared to the expected $0.94.
The company reported earnings of 6.53 Danish kroner per share, exceeding analyst expectations of 6.13 DKK per share.
CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen announced reduced full-year projections due to “lower-than-planned branded GLP-1 penetration.” The company now expects sales growth between 13% and 21%, down from the previous forecast of 16% to 24%.
Operating profit growth was also adjusted downward to between 16% and 24%, from the earlier projection of 19% to 27%.
Novo’s GLP-1 drugs, which include both diabetes treatment Ozempic and weight loss medication Wegovy, saw overall sales grow by 13% year over year. However, Wegovy sales came in at $2.6 million, 7% below consensus estimates.
Ozempic performed better, with quarterly sales of $4.9 million, about 3% ahead of estimates. In Danish kroner, Ozempic sales reached 32.7 billion DKK, above expectations of 31.5 billion DKK.
Market Competition Intensifies
The weight loss drug market has become increasingly competitive. Eli Lilly (LLY) has been gaining ground with its Zepbound medication, claiming it achieved “market leadership” in the U.S. market for incretin analogues during Q1 2025.
According to Lilly, 53.3% of incretin prescriptions during the quarter were for its medicines. This competition has contributed to Novo Nordisk’s stock falling nearly 50% over the past 12 months.
Despite these challenges, Jørgensen emphasized that Novo Nordisk still maintains approximately 72% of the global obesity and diabetes GLP-1 market share.
The company has launched Wegovy in 25 countries, including three in the last month, reflecting greater supply availability.
Strategic Moves to Maintain Position
Novo Nordisk has made several strategic moves to defend its market position. In late April, the company announced partnerships with telehealth platforms including Hims & Hers (HIMS) to sell Wegovy directly to cash-paying consumers at $499 per month, a discount from the list price.
This timing coincides with the FDA’s declaration that the GLP-1 drug shortage is over. Starting May 22, the FDA will begin taking action against compounding pharmacies producing copycat versions of semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy.
Perhaps more consequential was Novo’s deal with CVS Health’s pharmacy benefit manager to make Wegovy the preferred GLP-1 medicine on CVS’s largest formularies. This arrangement promises “more-affordable” access to Wegovy for patients on these plans.
The CVS announcement sent Eli Lilly’s stock diving last week, though Jørgensen downplayed the immediate impact, stating the deal would only serve “a fraction of the market” and was “not really about gaining a share short-term.”
The quarter-on-quarter sales of both Ozempic and Wegovy declined, by 3% and 13% respectively, marking the first such decline since the fourth quarter of 2023 during the height of the drug shortage.
Compared to the same period last year, however, Ozempic sales grew 18% and Wegovy sales increased by 85%, driven by strong performance outside the United States.
The company expects a reduction in patients using compounded GLP-1 drugs during the second half of the year as FDA enforcement begins.
As Novo Nordisk navigates these challenges, investors will be watching closely to see if its strategy of expanding global availability and forming strategic partnerships can help maintain its dominant position against growing competition from Eli Lilly.
Novo Nordisk stock was up 4.3% in midmorning trading in Denmark following the earnings announcement, with American depositary receipts pointing 4.8% higher at $69.48 ahead of the U.S. market open.
