TLDR
- NVDA dropped ~3% on Friday, closing around $177.83, down from a prior close of $183.34
- Reports of new U.S. rules requiring government approval for nearly all overseas AI chip sales rattled investors
- Nvidia reportedly halted H200 shipments to China to redirect TSMC capacity toward new Rubin platforms
- Despite the drop, Q4 revenue came in at $68.13 billion — up 73.2% year-over-year — beating estimates
- Analyst consensus price target sits at $273.64, with 47 Buy ratings and only 2 Hold ratings
NVIDIA (NVDA) fell around 3% on Friday, with the stock touching an intraday low of $176.82 before settling near $177.83. The prior close was $183.34. Volume came in at roughly 187.4 million — about 4% above the daily average.
The selling pressure came largely from fresh reports about potential new U.S. export rules. Officials have reportedly drafted regulations that would require government approval for nearly all overseas sales of advanced AI chips.
The rules would vary in complexity based on shipment size. Orders of 200,000 chips or more could require foreign investment in U.S. data centers or security guarantees, according to Bloomberg and Reuters.
The Commerce Department said it was not returning to Biden’s “AI diffusion” framework, pointing to recent AI chip deals struck in the Middle East as the model going forward.
But those Middle East deals weren’t exactly smooth. The U.S. approved the sale of up to 70,000 advanced chips to firms in the UAE and Saudi Arabia — only after months of delays tied to investment discussions and security concerns.
That timeline raises questions about how quickly deals could get done if a similar process applies globally.
China Headwinds Add to the Pressure
NVDA also faced pressure from separate reports that it halted H200 chip shipments to China. The move was tied to a reallocation of TSMC capacity toward the next-generation Rubin platform rather than a regulatory order.
Still, any reduction in China shipments is a near-term revenue headwind, and the market reacted accordingly.
AMD (AMD) also felt the heat, dropping around 3.52% on the same day. Both stocks have been weak this year as investor enthusiasm for the AI trade has cooled somewhat.
Strong Fundamentals Haven’t Gone Anywhere
The selloff came despite a very strong earnings report just weeks earlier. NVDA posted Q4 revenue of $68.13 billion, up 73.2% year-over-year, and beat the consensus estimate of $65.56 billion.
EPS came in at $1.62, ahead of the $1.54 estimate. Net margin was 55.60%, and return on equity hit 97.37%.
Data center revenue was a record. Analysts have been raising price targets in response, with Bank of America and Rosenblatt both lifting their targets to $300. Deutsche Bank moved to $220.
The consensus price target across 53 analysts sits at $273.64. That’s a substantial premium to where the stock is trading now.
CEO Jensen Huang also commented recently that the company’s investments in OpenAI and Anthropic may be among the last before those firms go public — a signal that fewer equity stakes are ahead.
Institutional interest remains strong. Norges Bank added a new position worth approximately $62.2 billion in Q4. J. Stern & Co. boosted its stake by over 13,000%.
NVDA’s market cap stands at $4.32 trillion. The stock carries a P/E of 36.29 and a beta of 2.33.
The 50-day moving average is $186.02. The 200-day sits at $183.87 — meaning Friday’s close dipped below both.
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