TLDR
- UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri raised his Nvidia price target to $245 from $235, implying 28% upside, ahead of Q4 earnings on February 25.
- The analyst projects Q4 revenue of $67.5 billion, about $2.5 billion above company guidance, and Q1 revenue around $76 billion.
- Supply chain checks remain strong despite sideways stock trading, with favorable setup heading into earnings and March’s GTC developer conference.
- China sales remain uncertain as local companies shift to domestic chips, though additional orders could add billions in revenue.
- UBS expects Nvidia to maintain 75% gross margin guidance despite investor concerns about competition from Google and Broadcom TPUs.
UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri increased his price target on Nvidia to $245 from $235 while keeping a Buy rating. The new target suggests 28% upside from current levels.
Arcuri ranks as the fifth-best analyst among more than 12,000 tracked on TipRanks. His track record includes a 77% success rate and 41.4% average return per rating.
Nvidia will report Q4 fiscal 2026 results on February 25. The company’s stock has traded sideways recently despite strong demand signals.
Strong Revenue Projections Beat Guidance
The analyst now expects Q4 revenue of roughly $67.5 billion. That figure sits $2.5 billion above Nvidia’s official guidance.
UBS also forecasts Q1 revenue around $76 billion. Most investors currently expect guidance in the $74 billion to $75 billion range.
Recent supply chain checks continue to show strength. The analyst believes the earnings setup looks favorable.
Nvidia’s GTC developer conference happens next month. The event could provide additional catalysts for the stock.
China remains a wild card in the revenue picture. Local companies are increasingly buying domestic chips instead of Nvidia products.
However, Arcuri said additional China orders could still contribute several billion dollars. UBS expects Nvidia may leave China out of formal guidance.
Margin Concerns and Competition
Investors have questioned whether Nvidia can maintain high profitability. Large tech companies are building their own AI processors.
Arcuri sees little near-term risk to the company’s 75% gross margin outlook. Management will likely address competitive concerns during the earnings call.
Google and Broadcom’s TPU chips represent the main competitive threat. The GTC conference in March should provide more clarity on this front.
Nvidia stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 47.47. The company currently holds a market value of $4.65 trillion.
Revenue grew 65.22% over the last twelve months. Wall Street maintains a Strong Buy consensus rating on the stock.
TipRanks shows 37 Buy ratings, one Hold, and one Sell from analysts. The average price target stands at $260.38, implying 37% upside.
The stock has gained 45% over the past year. Recent pullbacks in AI chip stocks may create buying opportunities.
UBS believes steady AI demand and clearer guidance could improve investor sentiment. The firm maintains its constructive view heading into the February 25 earnings report.
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