TLDR
- Nvidia stock fell 1.5% Thursday and pointed 0.4% lower Friday, while AMD and Intel rose in premarket trading
- Over the past month, NVDA gained 5% while the PHLX Semiconductor Index dropped 8%
- Alphabet’s earnings this week suggested stronger-than-expected data center spending, but still weighed on Big Tech including Nvidia
- Nvidia’s latest quarter saw EPS of $1.87 beat estimates, with revenue of $81.61 billion — up 85.2% year over year
- Microsoft earnings on July 29 and Amazon on July 30 are the next key catalysts to watch
Nvidia (NVDA) opened at $208.76 on Friday, slipping 0.4% ahead of the open after a 1.5% drop in the previous session. That move came even as peers AMD and Intel were trading higher in premarket.
It’s an odd split. Nvidia has been acting less like a chip stock and more like a mega-cap tech name — and the market is pricing it that way.
Over the past month, NVDA is up 5% while the PHLX Semiconductor Index has fallen 8%. Micron, by comparison, is down more than 5% over the same period. Nvidia has clearly been treated differently.
That rotation worked in Nvidia’s favor — until this week.
Alphabet’s earnings pointed to bigger-than-expected data center spending, which should, in theory, be good news for Nvidia. Instead, it triggered a pullback across Big Tech, dragging Nvidia lower alongside names like Microsoft and Amazon.
The read here is straightforward: if the market is treating Nvidia like a Big Tech stock, it trades with Big Tech. Good chip news doesn’t automatically mean a green day for NVDA anymore.
What the Fundamentals Say
The underlying numbers remain strong. Nvidia’s last quarterly report showed EPS of $1.87, beating the $1.76 consensus estimate. Revenue came in at $81.61 billion, topping expectations of $78.42 billion and up 85.2% year over year. Net margin was 62.97%.
The board authorized an $80 billion share buyback and raised the quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share — up from $0.01 previously. Annualized, that’s $1.00 per share, a yield of around 0.5%.
Institutional interest is holding. Y.D. More Investments lifted its NVDA stake by 11.5% in Q1, bringing its total to 106,987 shares worth roughly $18.65 million. Overall, 65.27% of NVDA is held by institutional investors.
Analyst sentiment remains broadly bullish. The average rating across Wall Street is “Buy” with an average price target of $304.26. Robert W. Baird has the most optimistic target at $500, while China Renaissance initiated with a $319 target and a Buy rating.
What’s Next
On the negative side, some analysts flag potential “sell-the-news” pressure after the earnings beat. AMD’s push with Anthropic and broader questions about whether AI spending will concentrate on other chip and memory suppliers add some competitive noise.
Nvidia also recently announced a $300 million, five-year AI research partnership with KAIST in Seoul, and is working with Amkor to support U.S. chip packaging capacity — both moves aimed at reinforcing its AI ecosystem.
The stock’s 50-day moving average sits at $208.22, with a 52-week range of $164.07 to $236.54 and a market cap of $5.05 trillion.
Microsoft reports July 29. Amazon reports July 30. Both are expected to show continued AI infrastructure spending — and those results will likely set the tone for where NVDA heads next.
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