TLDR
- Nvidia reports Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings after Wednesday’s market close, with analysts expecting $61B in data center revenue, up 70% year-over-year.
- Adjusted EPS is forecast at $1.53, up from $0.89 a year ago.
- Gross margin is the key metric to watch — analysts expect ~75%, and any drop could signal weakening pricing power.
- Competition is growing, with Meta signing a major AMD GPU deal and hyperscalers developing their own AI chips.
- Nvidia stock has traded largely flat since October, up just 3.4%, while AMD has gained 32% in the same period.
Nvidia is set to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, February 25.
Wall Street is watching closely. Analysts tracked by FactSet expect $61 billion in data center revenue for the quarter — a 70% jump from the same period last year.
To put that in perspective, Nvidia posted just $3.6 billion in data center revenue in Q4 2023, around the time ChatGPT launched. The growth since then has been staggering.
Adjusted earnings per share are forecast at $1.53, up from $0.89 a year ago — a 72% increase.
But the number analysts say matters most isn’t revenue or EPS. It’s gross margin.
Why Gross Margin Is the Real Story
Consensus estimates put Nvidia’s gross margin at around 75% for the quarter, up from 73% a year ago. On a GAAP basis, analysts estimate 74.8%.
That figure is important because it tells investors whether Nvidia still commands premium pricing for its GPUs.
Two things have kept that pricing power strong: the superior performance of Nvidia’s Hopper and Blackwell GPU lines, and demand that has consistently outpaced supply.
If Nvidia guides fiscal 2027 gross margin in the 74–75% range or higher, that’s widely seen as a green light. It would suggest customers are still paying top dollar for upcoming products like Blackwell Ultra and the Vera Rubin GPU.
If gross margin guidance slips to the low 70s or below, that’s a different story — one that would likely signal competitive pressure is starting to bite.
Competition Is Closing In
The competitive landscape has shifted noticeably in recent months.
On Tuesday, Meta Platforms signed a major deal with AMD to use its GPUs in some data centers. It’s the second large AMD deal in recent months — OpenAI struck a similar agreement in October.
In both cases, AMD handed over warrants to purchase up to around 10% of its stock at a penny per share, tied to performance milestones. Nvidia has deals with both Meta and OpenAI too, but has not offered equity as a rebate.
Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud are all developing their own custom AI chips to offer customers. Several AI chip startups are also competing for a slice of the market.
AMD’s data center revenue remains less than a tenth of Nvidia’s, and was growing more slowly when AMD reported its own Q4 results earlier this month.
Despite all the AI spending projections for 2026, Nvidia stock has been largely flat since October — up just 3.4% compared to AMD’s 32% gain in the same period.
Nvidia ended Tuesday’s session at $192.85, up 0.7% on the day.
CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to speak with analysts at 5 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday following the earnings release.
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