TLDR
- B. Riley cut its price target on Oklo from $129 to $92, keeping a Buy rating
- Craig-Hallum lowered its target from $87 to $71, maintaining a Hold, citing increased capital needs
- Needham trimmed its target from $135 to $73, keeping a Buy, implying roughly 20% upside
- CEO Jacob Dewitte and CFO Richard Bealmear each sold around 72,000 shares at $60 on March 13; insiders have sold ~$170M worth of stock in the past 90 days
- On the positive side, Oklo’s Atomic Alchemy unit received both a DOE Nuclear Safety Design Agreement and an NRC materials license
Oklo’s stock has had a rough six months. The nuclear energy company, trading at around $60.76, is down 42% over that period and well below its 52-week high of $193.84.
Several analyst firms moved their price targets lower this week following the company’s Q4 2025 earnings report. The targets came down, but most analysts aren’t walking away — they’re just recalibrating.
B. Riley cut its target from $129 to $92 but kept its Buy rating. The firm pointed to real progress in the business: DOE approvals for the Aurora plant at Idaho National Laboratory, a prepayment agreement with Meta for up to 1.2 gigawatts in Ohio, early fuel facility construction, and regulatory milestones for its Atomic Alchemy isotope unit.
Needham also kept its Buy rating but lowered its target sharply, from $135 to $73. That new target still implies around 20% upside from current levels, and the Street’s average target sits near $94.80 with a “Moderate Buy” consensus.
Craig-Hallum was more cautious. It kept a Hold rating and cut its target from $87 to $71. The firm revised its estimates to account for higher operating expenses, increased capital spending, and updated timing assumptions on future capital needs. It also left expected 2026 isotope revenue — likely below $5 million — out of its model entirely, pending more clarity.
Capital Needs and Insider Selling Weigh on Sentiment
Oklo ended Q4 2025 with $1.4 billion in cash. After the quarter closed, it raised an additional $1.2 billion. For 2026, the company guided operating cash use of $80 million to $100 million, plus investing cash use of $350 million to $450 million.
Despite the cash position, the company posted an EBITDA loss of $97 million over the trailing twelve months and a full-year 2025 operating loss of $139.3 million. Analysts do not expect profitability this year.
Adding to the pressure, CEO Jacob Dewitte sold around 72,960 shares on March 13 at $60, a transaction totaling roughly $4.38 million. CFO Richard Bealmear sold 72,090 shares on the same day at the same price, worth around $4.33 million. Over the past 90 days, insiders have sold approximately 2.07 million shares worth around $170 million in total. Insiders still hold 18.9% of the company.
Regulatory Progress Continues
Not everything is heading in the wrong direction. Oklo’s Atomic Alchemy subsidiary received a DOE Nuclear Safety Design Agreement for its Groves isotopes test reactor. It also received an NRC materials and isotope license — the first NRC license Oklo has received through an acquired subsidiary.
The company’s Aurora reactor received its first design approval from the Department of Energy, a step needed to move forward on a 1.2-gigawatt power agreement with Meta, with delivery targeted by 2034.
William Blair reaffirmed an Outperform rating. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an Overweight with a $122 target. Barclays rates it Overweight with an $82 target. Bank of America rates it Buy with a $127 target.
Oklo’s 50-day moving average stands at $75.08 and its 200-day moving average at $95.27. The company carries a market cap of around $9.49 billion.
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