TLDR
- Palantir reports Q1 2026 earnings today, May 4, after market close
- Options traders are pricing in a ~10% move in PLTR stock post-earnings
- Analysts expect revenue of $1.54 billion, up 74% year-over-year
- EPS is forecast at $0.28, more than double the same quarter last year
- PLTR is down 19% year-to-date heading into the report
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is set to report its first-quarter 2026 earnings today, and the options market is already signaling a big reaction.
Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR
Options traders are pricing in a move of roughly 9.82% in either direction following the release. That’s slightly above PLTR’s average post-earnings move of 9.28% over the past three quarters.
The stock is currently trading around $144.44, down 19% year-to-date.
Analysts expect revenue of approximately $1.54 billion for Q1, which would mark 74% growth year-over-year. That’s an acceleration from the 39.3% growth recorded in the same quarter last year.
Last quarter, Palantir posted revenue of $1.41 billion, up 70% year-on-year. It beat estimates on revenue, billings, and EBITDA.
On the profit side, the Street is looking for earnings of $0.28 per share. That would be more than double what Palantir earned in Q1 2025.
The company has committed to remaining profitable in every quarter of 2026, so any miss there would raise eyebrows.
AIP Growth in Focus
The biggest item on investors’ watch list is Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform, known as AIP.
Management previously forecast that U.S. commercial revenue — largely driven by AIP adoption — would grow at least 115% this year. Investors want to see evidence that businesses are signing up and staying on the platform.
U.S. commercial momentum has been the key growth engine, and any slowdown would likely hit the stock hard.
Government Business Also Watched
While the commercial side has drawn most of the attention, Palantir’s government contracts remain a key part of the story.
Investors will be watching for updates on deals with the U.S. military or international agencies. That segment provides more predictable cash flow and helps balance out the faster-moving commercial business.
Full-year guidance is also in focus. Palantir has set a target of $7.18 billion to $7.19 billion in revenue for 2026. Investors will check whether Q1 keeps the company on pace to hit that number.
The majority of analysts covering PLTR have kept their estimates unchanged over the past 30 days, suggesting they expect the company to stay on course.
Wall Street’s overall consensus is a Moderate Buy, based on 15 Hold ratings, five Buys, and two Sells. The average price target sits at $191.74, implying about 37.8% upside from current levels.
Palantir’s peer Commvault recently reported earnings and beat revenue estimates, with its stock jumping 14.4% on the results. The broader data and analytics software segment is up 8.7% over the past month, while PLTR has slipped 2.4% in the same period.
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