TLDR
- Polymarket now lets users bet if stocks or indices finish higher or lower.
- ICE plans to invest up to $2 billion, valuing Polymarket at $9 billion.
- Contracts use data from The Wall Street Journal and Nasdaq for results.
- Kalshi and Polymarket reached $1.4 billion in trading volume last month.
Polymarket has introduced a new feature that allows users to predict whether stock prices or indices will close higher or lower by a set time. The launch, supported by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), adds a new dimension to the prediction platform’s offerings and places it closer to traditional financial trading. This marks a broader shift in Polymarket’s focus beyond politics toward mainstream financial instruments.
Expansion into Financial Prediction Markets
The company unveiled the “up/down” equity and index markets on Wednesday. The new products allow users to take positions on the direction of specific stock prices or benchmarks within a defined period. These contracts are available through a new “Finance” section, which categorizes events into Equities, Earnings, Indices, Commodities, Acquisitions, IPOs, Fed Rates, Treasuries, and Business.
According to Polymarket, outcomes for these contracts will be determined using data from The Wall Street Journal and Nasdaq. This structure provides a reliable reference for price verification. The feature was introduced after the platform reentered the United States market and began expanding its product range to include corporate and economic events.
Integration with Traditional Finance
By introducing single-stock direction markets, Polymarket offers retail and crypto-native users a new way to speculate on equities. The system lets participants express directional views without brokerage accounts or margin trading tools. This setup may appeal to users who prefer decentralized, blockchain-based participation over traditional brokerage platforms.
Polymarket’s management stated that the goal is to bring prediction markets closer to the structure of conventional finance. ICE’s involvement supports this direction, as the exchange operator agreed to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the company at $9 billion. The partnership connects the emerging prediction market sector with established financial infrastructure.
Growing Market Activity
The introduction of equity-based contracts comes during a period of rapid growth for prediction platforms. Both Polymarket and Kalshi recorded about $1.4 billion in combined trading volume last month, reflecting stronger engagement from institutional and retail traders. This increased activity follows a wider trend of using event-driven markets as tools for speculation and information gathering.
Kalshi, which operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange, remains a strong competitor in the space. The MIT-founded platform has also expanded its offerings and raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation from investors including Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz. The competitive landscape indicates a growing interest from both regulators and traditional finance institutions.
A Broader Role for Prediction Platforms
Polymarket’s expansion reflects its transition from a platform focused mainly on political events to one covering a wide range of financial outcomes. The new “Finance” hub groups various market categories, making it easier for users to track corporate earnings, market indices, and interest rate moves.
By introducing equity and index prediction markets, Polymarket aims to create a bridge between digital asset speculation and traditional stock analysis. The company’s recent updates indicate a strategy to attract liquidity from both crypto traders and institutional participants, while aligning with regulated data sources for market resolution.
