TLDR
- Baird analyst Ben Kallo upgraded Rivian stock to Buy from Hold and raised the price target to $25 from $14, citing the upcoming R2 platform launch
- Rivian shares jumped 15% to close at $20.28, reaching a 52-week high and bringing year-to-date gains to 52%
- The R2 platform, launching mid-2026, is expected to boost brand recognition and product demand with a more affordable SUV
- Rivian revealed it developed an in-house AI chip at its first Autonomy & AI Day event, showing progress toward fully autonomous vehicles
- Only 30% of analysts rate Rivian as Buy compared to 55% for S&P 500 stocks, with average price target at $16
Rivian stock closed 15% higher on Thursday at $20.28, marking a 52-week high for the electric vehicle maker. The surge came after Baird analyst Ben Kallo upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold.
Kallo raised his price target to $25 from $14, representing a 78% increase. The upgrade puts his new target about 42% above Wednesday’s closing price.
“2026 is the year of R2,” Kallo wrote in his note to clients. The analyst believes the new platform will boost Rivian’s brand and drive product demand.
The R2 represents Rivian’s second vehicle platform. The company currently sells R1 vehicles, including the R1S SUV and R1T pickup truck.
Rivian plans to start selling R2 vehicles in mid-2026. The R2 SUV will be more affordable than current offerings.
The timing of the upgrade comes after Rivian held its first Autonomy & AI Day event last week. The company surprised investors by revealing it developed its own AI chip in-house.
This development shows Rivian’s progress toward offering fully autonomous vehicles. Kallo noted that Rivian’s work on autonomous driving and custom-designed microchips is positive for long-term competitiveness.
Market Context and Sales Expectations
The upgrade arrives during an uncertain period for EV sales. October and November sales declined after the removal of the $7,500 federal EV purchase tax credit in September.
Wall Street now expects Rivian to sell about 66,000 vehicles in 2026. A year ago, analysts projected 97,000 vehicles for that period.
Rivian is expected to deliver around 43,000 cars in 2025. The loss of the tax credit represents a headwind for 2026 sales projections.
Thursday’s gains pushed Rivian stock up about 52% for the year. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.1%.
Analyst Sentiment and Future Products
Only 30% of analysts covering Rivian rate the stock as Buy. This compares to 55% for stocks in the S&P 500.
The average analyst price target sits at about $16 per share. Kallo’s new $25 target stands well above the consensus.
Kallo stated he wants to own shares heading into the new product cycle. The R2 launch represents a key catalyst for 2026.
Beyond R2, Rivian has the R3 crossover SUV in development. This vehicle could provide another boost to demand following the R2 launch.
The company’s autonomy event revealed plans to deliver vehicles with complete autonomous driving capability. While this goal may be further out, it provides additional catalysts for the stock.
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