TLDR
- Reuters reported Morgan Stanley’s ETrade is in talks to lead SpaceX’s retail IPO share sale, potentially cutting out Robinhood and SoFi
- SpaceX is reportedly considering excluding Robinhood and SoFi from the deal altogether, though talks are ongoing
- Bernstein SocGen cut its price target on HOOD from $160 to $130, while keeping an Outperform rating
- The firm still projects 25% EPS growth for 2026 and a 30% revenue CAGR from 2025–2027
- HOOD currently trades about 54% below its 52-week high of $153.86
Robinhood has had a rough stretch. The stock is sitting at $66.02, more than 50% off its 52-week high, and Monday brought two fresh headaches — a damaging IPO report and a price target cut.
Reuters reported that Morgan Stanley’s ETrade is in talks to lead the retail portion of SpaceX’s IPO. That would give ETrade a key edge over Robinhood and SoFi, both of which have pitched for a role on what could be the biggest IPO in history.
SpaceX is reportedly weighing whether to cut both platforms from the deal entirely. That said, sources noted plans are not final and could still shift before the IPO, expected later this year.
The potential exclusion would sting. Robinhood and SoFi both played roles in high-profile listings like Arm Holdings’ $55 billion IPO and Instacart’s $9.9 billion debut in 2023. Missing SpaceX would be a different kind of miss — one that matters to retail investors and to Robinhood’s image as the go-to platform for big listings.
Neither Robinhood nor SoFi is tied to any of the banks underwriting the SpaceX deal. Morgan Stanley, one of the lead underwriters, is expected to route a large chunk of retail allocations through its own ETrade platform, which it acquired in 2020.
Bernstein SocGen Trims Target
Also on Monday, Bernstein SocGen lowered its price target on HOOD from $160 to $130, citing valuation. The firm kept its Outperform rating, meaning it still sees the stock as a buy — just not quite as aggressively priced as before.
The revised target reflects a lower earnings multiple: 35 times 2027 estimated EPS, down from 40 times. That’s based on a projected 32% EPS CAGR from 2025 to 2027.
Despite the cut, the analyst’s underlying view on Robinhood’s business remains upbeat. The firm projects 25% EPS growth in 2026, even with a weak first quarter in both equities and crypto. Revenue is expected to grow at a 30% CAGR through 2027.
Prediction markets are flagged as a new growth driver. Bernstein SocGen sees them contributing roughly 17% of trading revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026, supported by Robinhood’s Kalshi distribution deal and its Rothera exchange platform.
Other Analyst Takes
Crypto is also expected to bounce back. The firm models a 79% year-over-year recovery in crypto trading volumes in the second half of 2026, helped by the Bitstamp acquisition.
Non-trading revenue is forecast to grow 27% year-over-year. That includes margin lending on a $17.2 billion book, Gold subscriptions with 4.2 million subscribers, and banking deposits now above $1 billion.
Other analysts have mixed views. Barclays holds an Overweight with a $124 target. Truist has a Buy at $120. Jefferies recently started coverage with a Buy and an $88 target. Cantor Fitzgerald is more cautious, cutting its target to $95 on revised revenue expectations.
Robinhood’s board recently approved a $1.5 billion share buyback program, which drew positive reactions from several of those firms.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 32.25 with a market cap of $59.44 billion.
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