TLDR
- SoFi posted record 2025 adjusted net revenue of $3.6 billion, up 38% year-over-year
- Q1 2026 earnings drop April 29 — the stock’s biggest test yet
- SOFI trades at over 30x forward earnings, a premium vs. peers trading at ~8x
- Muddy Waters published a short report in March 2026; CEO Anthony Noto bought 28,900 shares in response
- Wall Street consensus is Hold, with an average price target of $23.27
SoFi Technologies is heading into its April 29 earnings report carrying a lot of expectations. The stock has climbed roughly 48% over the past 12 months, and investors want to see the numbers back that up.
Full-year 2025 adjusted net revenue hit $3.6 billion, up 38% year-over-year. Q4 2025 was the company’s first-ever billion-dollar quarter at $1.013 billion. Net income came in at $481 million — a meaningful shift after years of losses.
Member count grew 35% year-over-year to 13.7 million. Total products on the platform crossed 20 million, with 40% of new products opened by existing members.
Fee-based revenue now makes up more than half of total revenue. In Q4 alone, fee-based revenue reached $443 million, up roughly 53% year-over-year. That shift away from net interest income is something management has been working toward.
Forbes ranked SoFi the number one bank in the U.S. in April 2026, ahead of JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, based on a customer survey. The company also became the first nationally chartered U.S. bank to offer XRP deposits.
The Numbers That Worry Investors
SOFI trades at over 30x forward earnings. That’s a steep premium compared to peers. OneMain Holdings trades at 8x with a 7.1% dividend yield. Ally Financial sits at 8x with a 2.7% yield. SLM is at 8.5x.
Management’s 2026 guidance assumes two Fed rate cuts and roughly 2.5% real GDP growth. Neither of those is looking like a sure thing right now, with inflation staying stickier than expected.
Net interest margin dipped 12 basis points sequentially in Q4 to 5.72%. Personal loan charge-offs rose 20 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 2.80%. Student loan charge-offs also ticked up.
A major Technology Platform client left before year-end 2025, trimming a recurring revenue stream. That segment grew 19% in Q4 — solid, but below the company-wide pace. Management still guides for 20%-plus pro forma growth for the full year.
The Short Report and the CEO’s Response
Muddy Waters Research published a short-seller report in March 2026 alleging $312 million in unrecorded debt and describing SoFi as a “financial engineering treadmill.” Management pushed back on the claims.
CEO Anthony Noto responded by buying 28,900 shares in the open market at $17.32. That’s the kind of move that tends to get noticed.
Barclays cut its SOFI price target from $28 to $18 in April, noting that consumer finance valuations have pulled back broadly to below historical averages.
For 2026, management guided to adjusted net revenue of around $4.65 billion and adjusted EPS of roughly $0.60.
Based on 16 Wall Street analysts, SOFI holds a consensus Hold rating — five Buys, eight Holds, three Sells. The average price target is $23.27, about 26% above the current price of $18.44.
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