TLDR
- JPMorgan stated that Solana ETFs are unlikely to match the success of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
- The bank cited investor fatigue and Solana’s weaker reputation in DeFi as major obstacles.
- Solana ETFs are expected to receive around $1.5 billion in net inflows in their first year.
- Bitcoin ETFs gained nearly $36 billion in inflows while Ethereum ETFs saw $8.7 billion in their first year.
- The first Solana ETF approved by the SEC raised $12 million on its first day of trading.
JPMorgan has warned that upcoming Solana ETFs may not replicate the success of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot funds. The bank cited investor fatigue and a limited perception of Solana’s role in decentralized finance. Despite this, analysts projected first-year inflows into Solana ETFs could reach $1.5 billion.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Set High Benchmark
Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and broke records with their performance and inflows in the first year. These funds attracted nearly $36 billion and now manage close to $170 billion in assets. Their success created a strong benchmark for other crypto-based exchange-traded funds.
JPMorgan noted that Bitcoin’s mainstream appeal and first-mover advantage played a key role in its ETF performance. The report said investors perceive Bitcoin as a digital store of value, which drives demand. Therefore, future ETFs face high expectations and market saturation.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s established position in institutional portfolios continues to bolster ETF inflows. This strong presence likely leaves limited room for smaller coins, such as Solana. Asset managers must navigate this crowded landscape as they seek to capture investor attention.
Ethereum Funds See Moderate Growth
Ethereum ETFs began trading in May 2024 and experienced a slower start compared to their Bitcoin counterparts. JPMorgan observed that, despite this, the funds still generated $8.7 billion within one year of trading. These products now manage over $31 billion in assets.
Analysts believe Ethereum’s strong position in the DeFi and innovative contract ecosystem boosts investor confidence. The report explained, “Ethereum is seen as the main DeFi/smart contract cryptocurrency,” setting it apart from newer rivals. This recognition contributes to steady inflows despite slower momentum.
Still, Ethereum ETFs benefited from being only the second major crypto ETF class approved. Their relative novelty helped them gain investor interest before fatigue set in. JPMorgan now sees diminishing enthusiasm for new altcoin ETFs due to market saturation.
Solana ETFs Face Uphill Climb
JPMorgan analysts wrote that Solana ETFs are “less likely to gain significant inflows” compared to earlier crypto ETF launches. They emphasized that Solana lacks Ethereum’s status in the DeFi space, reducing its appeal among institutional investors. Moreover, the launch of multiple ETFs may cause demand to fragment.
The SEC approved the first Solana ETF, Rex-Osprey Solana + Staking ETF, in June, which raised $12 million on its first day. However, JPMorgan believes the inflows will remain modest as investor excitement fades. The report said fatigue could limit enthusiasm for newer digital asset funds.
JPMorgan also mentioned that crypto treasuries might divert capital from Solana ETFs. These firms offer exposure through equity, potentially reducing direct ETF demand. Still, the report estimated that Solana ETFs might collect $1.5 billion in net inflows during their debut year.
The report concluded that Solana ETFs face multiple headwinds, including competition, market fatigue, and investor preference for Bitcoin and Ethereum. While Solana offers faster and cheaper transactions, JPMorgan sees these strengths as insufficient to drive strong ETF demand.
