TLDR
- Solana (SOL) struggles to maintain levels above $200 despite multiple attempts over six weeks
- On-chain activity weakened with network fees down 17% and transactions dropping 10% week-over-week
- Over $1 billion flowed into Solana network in past 30 days, showing strong capital inflows
- Technical analysis reveals ascending triangle pattern with potential breakout above $260 targeting $320-$350
- SEC decision on Solana ETF applications remains pending with 90%+ approval odds estimated by analysts
Solana’s native token has faced resistance at the $200 level over the past six weeks. The cryptocurrency currently trades around $184, showing a 3.55% gain in the past 24 hours.
Despite recent gains, SOL remains down 6.7% over the past week. Monthly performance shows a 6.27% decline from previous levels.
The token’s all-time high stands near $294. Current price action suggests traders are questioning what factors limit further upside momentum.
On-Chain Activity Shows Mixed Signals
Network fundamentals present a complex picture for Solana. On-chain data reveals weakening activity metrics in recent periods.
Network fees fell 17% compared with the previous week. Transaction volume dropped 10% during the same timeframe.
This decline contrasts with competitor networks showing growth. BNB Chain fees rose 6% while maintaining flat transaction levels.
Ethereum’s layer-2 networks demonstrated stronger performance. Base transactions increased 14% while Arbitrum gained 20%.
Solana’s fee levels remain substantial given the network’s $12.5 billion total value locked. This compares to Ethereum’s nearly $100 billion TVL.
Chain revenue has declined 91% from January’s peak. This downturn coincided with the Official Trump token launch and broader memecoin activity.
Solana Price Prediction
Despite weaker on-chain metrics, capital flow data shows positive trends. Over $1 billion moved into the Solana network during the past 30 days.
These inflows exceeded those into Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Base combined. Solana accounted for 42% of bridging activity in recent weeks.
Analysts view these inflows as evidence of strengthening demand beyond memecoin speculation. The data suggests Solana is becoming a venue for broader liquidity deployment.
Cross-chain activity confirms that institutional and retail interest continues growing. This capital movement provides fundamental support for potential price recovery.
Futures market data shows balanced sentiment among traders. The current 10% annualized premium on perpetual futures indicates neutral positioning.
Binance’s top-trader long-to-short ratio has shifted toward bearish positioning. This measure incorporates futures, margin, and spot markets for broader sentiment analysis.
Demand for bullish SOL exposure reached monthly highs last Saturday before declining. Derivatives data suggests whales and market makers remain cautious about sustained moves above $200.
$SOL is in a massive ascending triangle 🔺
Resistance around $250–$260, higher lows holding strong. Breakout = bullish rally 🚀, breakdown = bearish shift🚨#Solana pic.twitter.com/rWJS5BULpc
— Anup Dhungana (@CryptoAnup) August 19, 2025
Technical analysis reveals multiple bullish patterns forming on different timeframes. An ascending triangle appears on weekly charts with resistance between $250 and $260.
This pattern shows price repeatedly testing upper resistance while maintaining higher lows. Technical strategists say confirmed closes above $260 would validate the triangle breakout.
A successful breakout could target $320 to $350 levels. The pattern suggests volatility compression before potential upward movement.
Short-term charts display a falling wedge on four-hour timeframes. This formation typically signals impending reversals when upper boundaries break.
Analysts identify $188 to $190 as key breakout levels for momentum confirmation. Volume increases during support tests indicate buying interest at lower levels.
Recent whale activity adds near-term uncertainty to the outlook. A large holder unstaked nearly 100,000 SOL tokens worth approximately $18 million.
The tokens moved to Binance exchange, potentially signaling selling or hedging activity. Support levels between $169 and $176 become critical if selling pressure emerges.
Galaxy Digital, Multicoin & Jump look to Raise $1B for Solana Treasury Company: Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/5YZqNElv8M
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) August 25, 2025
Institutional developments could provide additional catalysts for price movement. Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital, and Jump Crypto are reportedly raising $1 billion for a Solana-focused treasury company.
The Solana Foundation has endorsed this initiative according to Bloomberg reports. However, the announcement failed to generate immediate price momentum.
The SEC maintains pending decisions on multiple Solana spot ETF applications. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas estimates approval odds above 90% with final deadlines in mid-October.
