TLDR
- Standard Chartered projects that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of December 2025.
- The bank attributes this forecast to strong demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury accumulation.
- Bitcoin is now being treated as a macro asset rather than following past halving cycle patterns.
- In Q2 2025, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $12.4 billion in inflows equal to approximately 120,000 BTC.
- Corporate treasuries added another 125,000 BTC in Q2, bringing the total demand to 245,000 BTC.
According to Standard Chartered’s latest forecast, Bitcoin may reach $200,000 by December. The bank credits strong inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and rising corporate treasury adoption. This sharp revision highlights shifting market dynamics and rising institutional participation.
The bank sees these inflows as key drivers pushing Bitcoin beyond traditional halving-cycle patterns. Standard Chartered now views Bitcoin as behaving like a macro asset influenced by broader financial forces. The projection marks a significant shift in the bank’s outlook, reflecting stronger conviction in Bitcoin’s structural growth.
Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, attributes this change to evolving investor behavior and maturing regulations. He also suggests that past post-halving corrections no longer apply to current market conditions. The forecast builds on an earlier long-term target of $500,000 per unit by 2028.
Standard Chartered Highlights Bitcoin ETF Surge
Standard Chartered notes that spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $12.4 billion in inflows during Q2 2025. This inflow equals around 120,000 BTC purchased by institutional investors through regulated ETF platforms. The bank expects Q3 inflows to exceed this total, driven by growing investor confidence.
Since their launch in January 2024, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows exceeding $48 billion. These flows outpace gold ETFs, which attracted just $6.9 billion over the same period. This suggests a shift in investor preference toward Bitcoin as a performance-based asset.
Bitcoin’s ETF-driven demand presents a structural change in market liquidity and long-term price support. Standard Chartered believes this trend will help stabilize Bitcoin during future periods of volatility. Increased retail and institutional access to ETFs may further boost this momentum.
Corporate Treasury Adoption Adds Fuel
In Q2 2025, companies added 125,000 BTC to their treasuries, matching the pace of ETF inflows. This brought the combined demand from ETFs and corporate buyers to 245,000 BTC in one quarter. Standard Chartered anticipates continued corporate accumulation in Q3.
The bank highlights this as evidence of rising strategic confidence among firms seeking digital exposure. It sees treasury allocations as reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as a balance-sheet asset. Broader regulatory clarity may accelerate this trend in the coming months.
