TLDR:
- Super Micro Computer provided lower-than-expected Q4 guidance with adjusted EPS forecast of $0.40-$0.50 versus analyst estimates of $0.66
- Revenue guidance for Q4 is $5.6-$6.4 billion, below consensus of $6.65 billion
- Company cut fiscal 2025 revenue forecast to $21.8-$22.6 billion from previous $23.5-$25 billion
- Q3 earnings beat estimates at $0.31 per share on revenue of $4.6 billion
- CEO cited customer delays in platform decisions, economic uncertainty, and tariff impacts as reasons for the outlook reduction
Super Micro Computer has delivered mixed news to investors this week. While the server maker managed to beat Wall Street expectations for its third-quarter results, its future outlook has sent shares tumbling.
The company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.31 per share on revenue of $4.6 billion. This represented a slight beat compared to analyst expectations.
However, the positive earnings news was overshadowed by disappointing guidance for the upcoming quarter and fiscal year.
Super Micro now expects fourth-quarter adjusted earnings between $0.40 and $0.50 per share. This falls well short of Wall Street estimates of $0.66 per share.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Q3 2025 Earnings Summary:
✅ EPS: $0.31 — beat estimates of $0.30, but down from $0.67 YoY
✅ Revenue: $4.6 billion — beat expectations by 1.13%
✅ Stock Performance: Up 5.5% YTD, outperforming the S&P 500 pic.twitter.com/wIN7H6GY21
— Trader Edge (@Pro_Trader_Edge) May 7, 2025
Revenue for the June quarter is projected to be between $5.6 billion and $6.4 billion. Analysts had been looking for $6.65 billion.
Market Reaction and Long-Term Trends
The company’s shares dropped 4.5% in premarket trading on Wednesday following the Tuesday evening release. This continues a difficult stretch for SMCI stock, which has fallen 60% over the past 12 months.
Wall Street analysts remain divided on Super Micro’s prospects. According to FactSet, four analysts rate it a Buy, five give it a Hold, and one recommends Sell.
Super Micro has shown some relative strength against the broader market in 2025. The stock has gained about 5.5% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has declined 3.9% during the same period.
This year-to-date outperformance comes despite ongoing challenges for the company.
Customer Delays Impact Forecast
CEO Charles Liang pointed to specific factors driving the reduced outlook.
“Some customers delayed making platform decisions in the quarter,” Liang explained in the earnings release. He expressed optimism that these commitments would eventually materialize in the June and September quarters.
However, Liang also warned that “economic uncertainty and tariff impacts may have a short-term impact” on the company’s performance.
The revised fiscal 2025 revenue guidance now stands at $21.8 billion to $22.6 billion. This represents a substantial reduction from previous estimates of $23.5 billion to $25 billion.
Analyst consensus had been expecting 2025 revenue of $23.6 billion, putting even the high end of the new guidance range below market expectations.
Super Micro’s preliminary earnings announcement on April 29 had already hinted at challenges. The stock dropped 12% on April 30 following that initial preview.
The server technology company has a mixed recent track record with earnings. Over the last four quarters, Super Micro has surpassed consensus EPS estimates twice and topped revenue expectations three times.
Super Micro operates in the critical cloud computing sector. The company’s servers frequently use Nvidia chips and serve many major technology companies.
This position in the artificial intelligence supply chain previously made SMCI a favorite among investors seeking exposure to the AI boom. However, the company has faced additional challenges after delaying results and replacing its auditor last year.
The current outlook reflects ongoing pressure in the server market, with potential impacts from both economic factors and trade policies affecting customer decisions.
