TLDR
- Super Micro Computer reports Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings after market close on February 3, with analysts expecting sales of $10.42 billion (up 83.4% year-over-year) but earnings per share of $0.49 (down from $0.51 last year)
- Options traders anticipate an 11.9% stock move in either direction following the earnings report, significantly higher than the average 7.06% post-earnings move over the past four quarters
- The company reported a $13 billion order backlog in Q1 FY26, though supply chain issues may limit conversion to sales and margins face pressure from increased competition
- Analyst ratings remain divided with a Hold consensus, ranging from Goldman Sachs’ $26 Sell rating to Northland Securities’ $63 Buy rating, while the Justice Department continues investigating the company’s accounting practices
- SMCI missed its most recent quarter with EPS of $0.35 versus $0.46 expected and revenue of $5.02 billion versus $6.48 billion expected, marking revenue down 15.5% year-over-year
Super Micro Computer faces a crucial moment as it prepares to unveil Q2 fiscal 2026 results after market close on February 3. The stock has lost 3.6% over the past five days as investors brace for what could be a volatile reaction.
Super Micro Computer, Inc., SMCI
Wall Street expects the AI server maker to post adjusted earnings per share of $0.49, a decline from $0.51 in the same quarter last year. Revenue, however, should tell a different story. Analysts forecast sales will surge 83.4% year-over-year to $10.42 billion.
The company previously guided for Q2 revenues between $10 billion and $11 billion, with adjusted EPS of $0.46 to $0.54. SMCI has missed earnings estimates in five of the past eight quarters, adding to investor jitters.
Monday saw shares climb 2.1% to $29.71 during mid-day trading. Trading volume reached approximately 26.46 million shares, down 17% from the daily average.
The company’s Q1 FY26 order backlog exceeded $13 billion, pointing to strong underlying demand. But there’s a catch. Supply chain constraints could prevent the company from converting those orders into actual sales.
Margins Under the Microscope
Profit margins have become a focal point for analysts tracking SMCI. Competition has intensified in the AI server space, squeezing the company’s ability to maintain pricing power.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mike Ng initiated coverage with a Sell rating and $26 price target, forecasting 12.5% downside. He expects SMCI to hold its leadership position in the AI server market over the medium term. However, he warns that large, dilutive contracts, rising competition from OEMs and ODMs, and climbing input costs will limit near-term margin improvements.
The most recent quarter painted a challenging picture. SMCI reported EPS of $0.35, missing the $0.46 estimate. Revenue came in at $5.02 billion versus expectations of $6.48 billion. Revenue dropped 15.5% year-over-year.
Citi analyst Asiya Merchant maintained a Hold rating but cut her price target from $48 to $39, implying 31.3% upside potential. She pointed to sustained capital expenditure from major cloud operators driving demand for power systems, storage, connectors, and fiber optics.
Regulatory Cloud Lingers
The Justice Department’s investigation into SMCI’s accounting practices remains unresolved. Short-seller Hindenburg Research spotlighted these concerns in a report last year. Any updates during the earnings call could move the stock.
Analyst sentiment remains mixed heading into the report. Four analysts rate the stock a Hold, one rates it a Buy, and one rates it a Sell.
Northland Securities analyst Nehal Chokshi stands out as the most optimistic, reiterating his Buy rating with a Street-high price target of $63. That implies 112% upside potential from current levels.
Management set Q2 2026 EPS guidance at $0.46 to $0.54, with analysts forecasting full-year EPS of $1.86. The company trades at a market capitalization of $17.74 billion with a P/E ratio of 23.77.
Institutional investors hold 84.06% of the stock, with several new positions initiated in recent quarters.
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