TLDR
- Super Micro reports Q3 FY26 earnings after market close on Tuesday, May 5
- Wall Street expects revenue of ~$12.39 billion, up ~170% year-over-year
- Options traders are pricing in a 12.5% move in either direction post-earnings
- SMCI stock is up 23.2% over the past month but still down over 42% in six months
- Analysts hold a consensus Hold rating with an average price target of $30.53
Super Micro Computer is set to report its fiscal third-quarter results on Tuesday, May 5, after the market closes. The stock is currently trading around $27.16, and Wall Street will be watching closely.
Super Micro Computer, Inc., SMCI
Options traders are pricing in a move of about 12.55% in either direction following the print. That’s slightly above SMCI’s average post-earnings move of 11.2% over the past four quarters, signaling elevated expectations.
Analysts expect earnings of $0.62 per share for Q3 FY26, up from $0.31 a year ago. Revenue is seen coming in around $12.39 billion, which would represent roughly 170% growth year-over-year.
Last quarter, Super Micro posted revenue of $12.68 billion, a 123% jump year-on-year. That beat analyst expectations, and EPS also came in above estimates.
Despite that strong showing, margins were a concern. Gross margin fell to 6.4% in the prior quarter, squeezed by higher costs and shifts in product mix.
Investors will be watching whether margins show any signs of stabilizing this time around. That could be the key swing factor for how the stock reacts.
Blackwell Rollout in Focus
Another major focus will be Super Micro’s partnership with Nvidia and the deployment of Blackwell GPU systems. How quickly those systems are being shipped and how much they’re contributing to revenue will be closely watched.
Blackwell is seen as a key growth driver for the company going forward. Any updates on availability and customer uptake could move the stock.
SMCI has faced a turbulent stretch. The stock is down more than 42% over the past six months, weighed down by U.S. government charges against a co-founder and others for allegedly diverting servers containing restricted Nvidia chips to China.
The stock has bounced back 20% in the past month as some of that pressure eased. It’s heading into earnings with the average analyst price target sitting at $33.20, above the current price of $27.16.
What Analysts Are Saying
Wall Street is largely cautious. Citigroup analyst Asiya Merchant raised her price target to $28.81 from $25 but kept a Hold rating.
JPMorgan’s Samik Chatterjee cut his target to $28 from $40, also maintaining a Hold. That cut came as part of a broader review of the hardware and networking sector.
TipRanks’ consensus shows a Hold rating based on three Buys, eight Holds, and two Sells over the last three months. The average price target of $30.53 implies about 12.7% upside from current levels.
Most analysts covering the stock have held their estimates steady over the past 30 days, suggesting they expect results broadly in line with current forecasts.
Super Micro has missed Wall Street’s revenue estimates multiple times over the past two years, which adds some uncertainty heading into Tuesday’s report.
The majority of estimates have remained unchanged ahead of the print, with no major revisions in either direction in recent weeks.
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