TLDR
- JPMorgan cut its Tempus AI price target from $80 to $60, maintaining a “neutral” rating
- Q4 revenue jumped 83% year-over-year to $367.2 million, beating analyst expectations
- The company guided for ~$1.59B in 2026 revenue, roughly 25% growth
- Insiders sold around 596,035 shares worth ~$37.5M over the past 90 days
- Multiple analysts kept Buy ratings, with an average consensus target of $80.92
Tempus AI (TEM) dropped on Wednesday after JPMorgan Chase cut its price target on the stock from $80 to $60, keeping a “neutral” rating. The new target implies an upside of about 10.85% from the stock’s recent close.
TEM fell $3.82 to $54.13 during Wednesday’s session, on volume of 6.6 million — above its average of 5.7 million.
The JPMorgan cut wasn’t the only one. Stifel also lowered its target, from $85 to $60, while holding a “Hold” rating. The firm noted that revenues matched pre-announced levels and that the oncology portfolio looks well positioned, but flagged mixed profitability signals as the reason for the trim.
BTIG dropped its target from $105 to $90 but kept a “buy” rating. HC Wainwright moved from $98 to $89, also keeping “buy.” The average consensus target across all analysts currently sits at $80.92, with eight analysts rating TEM a buy, five at hold, and one at sell.
Not everyone is pulling back. Mizuho started coverage on February 19 with an “outperform” rating and a $100 price target. Canaccord Genuity’s Kyle Mikson maintained a “buy” with an $80 target, pointing to strong top-line momentum and expanding pharma demand. Needham also reiterated “buy” with a $75 target.
Q4 Results Beat, but Profitability Clouded the Picture
Tempus AI posted Q4 revenue of $367.2 million, up 83% year-over-year and ahead of expectations. The adjusted loss came in at $0.04 per share, well better than the $0.20 loss Wall Street had penciled in.
Diagnostics revenue led the way, hitting $266.9 million — a 121.6% year-over-year jump. Oncology test volumes rose 29% and Hereditary volumes grew 23%. Data and Applications revenue reached $100.4 million, up 25.1%.
Despite those numbers, the stock dropped over 3% in after-hours trading following the report. Investors zeroed in on the lack of a clear timeline for full-year profitability and a 2026 revenue guide of ~$1.59B that didn’t meaningfully beat Wall Street’s estimates.
Over the last twelve months, the company posted negative EBITDA of $150.55 million. Analysts do not expect profitability in 2026.
Insider Selling Raises Eyebrows
Insider activity has been heavy. Over the past 90 days, insiders sold 596,035 shares worth roughly $37.5 million.
EVP Andrew Polovin sold 10,949 shares on February 20 at an average of $60.31, totaling $660,334. CEO Ryan Fukushima sold 9,592 shares on February 19 at $59.05, for $566,407. Insiders still hold 26.27% of the company.
Hedge funds and institutional investors own 24.22% of TEM. Several smaller funds initiated new positions in Q3 and Q4, though at relatively modest levels.
The stock’s 52-week range runs from $36.22 to $104.32. Its 50-day moving average is $61.92 and the 200-day sits at $73.59. The market cap stands at $9.63 billion, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.45 and a beta of 5.22.
Stifel said it remains interested in TEM at current levels, noting it trades at a discount to oncology diagnostics peers, though InvestingPro flags the stock as overvalued relative to fair value.
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