TLDR
- Tesla stock dropped 0.5% to $349.26 Thursday, a day after gaining 4.2%, which was driven by a Cybercab event teaser.
- Tesla teased an upcoming Cybercab event, signaling the purpose-built robo-taxi may be entering its fleet soon.
- JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta says the next major fleet inflection point is tied to the rollout of FSD Version 15 later this year.
- JPMorgan’s meeting with Tesla management confirmed confidence in near-term Cybercab scaling, with future vehicle models expected on the same platform.
- Optimus Gen 3 commercial sales could begin in the second half of 2027, with a reveal planned closer to production start at Fremont.
Tesla stock gave back some ground Thursday morning, slipping 0.5% to $349.26, a day after a 4.2% rally fueled by excitement around the company’s Cybercab robo-taxi program.
The stock is still down 22% in 2026. S&P 500 and Dow futures were also slightly lower, down 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.
Wednesday’s gain came after Tesla teased a Cybercab event on Monday evening. The purpose-built two-seat, no-steering-wheel vehicle has been highly anticipated by investors looking for the robo-taxi business to scale.
Tesla did not respond to a request for comment on the event.
The company launched its robo-taxi service using Model Y vehicles in Austin, Texas, back in June 2025. It has since expanded to a handful of cities. Tesla stock jumped 8% the day after that launch, but has since given back roughly 1% through Wednesday.
JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta recently visited Tesla’s Fremont, California plant. He came away impressed, calling it the company’s “primary test bed for innovation” across a roughly 5 million square foot footprint.
FSD V15 Is the Key Catalyst
Gupta flagged FSD Version 15 as the critical next step. He described it as a “step-change in performance” that pulls together seven core technologies. Around 40% of those are already being tested in the robotaxi fleet, with early feedback described as encouraging.
Tesla confirmed that its HW4 hardware can run FSD V15 and unsupervised FSD. The newer AI4.5 compute system offers about 10% higher processing power and double the memory, designed to handle growing demands as the fleet scales.
Tesla told JPMorgan it is now limiting further Model Y additions to the robo-taxi fleet. That reflects management’s confidence that Cybercab can scale in the near term.
Tesla also reiterated that Cybercab is just the starting point. More vehicle types are expected to follow as the platform develops, including a concept called the Obovan.
Optimus Robot on a Longer Timeline
On the robot side, Tesla said commercial sales of the Optimus Gen 3 could begin in the second half of 2027. The reveal of the robot will be timed closer to its production start at Fremont to protect competitive advantage.
Tesla noted that Gen 4’s design and capabilities will be shaped by what the company learns from Gen 3 in the field.
Fremont recently converted its Model S and X production capacity to humanoid robot manufacturing. That shift was not visible during JPMorgan’s visit.
Gupta rates Tesla stock Hold with a $445 price target.
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