TLDR
- Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026, missing the Wall Street estimate of 372,160
- TSLA stock fell 4.6–5.4% on the news, extending a 15% year-to-date decline
- Energy storage deployments also missed, coming in at 8.8 GWh vs. 14.4 GWh expected
- Truist cut its price target from $438 to $400, maintaining a Hold rating
- Wedbush kept its Outperform rating and $600 target, pointing to AI and robotaxi potential
Tesla (TSLA) delivered 358,023 vehicles globally in Q1 2026, falling short of the Wall Street consensus of 372,160. It marks the second straight quarter the company has missed delivery projections.
Today's Tesla deliveries came in at 387,000, well below everyone's expectations.
But Kalshi traders were closer than most, if not all, Wall Street analysts!
Analyst consensus: 431,125
Kalshi Forecast: 412,000Our traders gave a 7% chance of deliveries below 400k! pic.twitter.com/Ukpjc2FV5c
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) April 2, 2024
The stock dropped 4.6% when markets opened Thursday, its steepest intraday fall in nearly two months. Year-to-date, TSLA is down 15%, and off 22% from its December record high.
Deliveries did rise 6.3% compared to the same quarter last year, when factory retooling and consumer backlash against CEO Elon Musk weighed on output. But strip that out, and Q1 2026 is the weakest delivery quarter since mid-2022.
The Model Y and Model 3 made up the bulk of deliveries at 341,893 units. The rest — Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck — accounted for 16,130. Total production for the quarter came in at 408,386, leaving a notable gap between what was built and what was sold.
Energy storage also disappointed. Tesla deployed 8.8 GWh during the quarter, down from 10.4 GWh a year ago and well below the Street estimate of 14.4 GWh. William Blair had expected 18 GWh.
Analyst Reactions
Truist Securities cut its price target on TSLA from $438 to $400, keeping a Hold rating. Analyst William Stein flagged that both auto and energy deliveries missed expectations, and said investors would be better served focusing on Full Self-Driving and AI developments rather than delivery numbers.
Oppenheimer noted a 2% shortfall versus company-compiled consensus. William Blair reiterated a Market Perform rating following the energy miss.
Wedbush held firm with an Outperform and a $600 price target. The firm pointed to Tesla’s AI roadmap, robotaxi rollout, and capital commitments as the reasons to stay bullish. The near-term delivery data, in their view, is secondary.
Market and Product Headwinds
The federal EV tax credit phaseout, which ended in September, skewed second-half 2024 sales higher and is now creating a tough comparison. The Trump administration has also moved to roll back emissions rules and EV incentives, prompting other automakers to shift back toward gas-powered vehicles.
Tesla is also phasing out the Model S and Model X — its two oldest vehicles — as it works toward volume production of the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with no steering wheel or pedals. Musk has said production will begin soon, though sales prospects remain uncertain.
On the positive side, Tesla’s China-made EV sales rose 8.7% year-over-year in March, a fifth straight month of growth. Model 3 and Model Y deliveries from the Shanghai factory jumped 46.2% versus February, per the China Passenger Car Association.
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